Friday, February 11, 2022
Geopolitical tensions were the excuse for todays market action as the Dow fell another 500+ points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways band. It remains in negative territory and that is unusual. A report surfaced today from the US that Russia will stage an attack on the Ukraine next week. As if the US knows what plans the Russians have for an invasion. The NASDAQ led the way down again. The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average. The down trend line that began in the beginning of January remains in effect. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over and have room to go lower. Sure wish I still had those SPY February puts. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P looks negative. Option expiration week on tap and I wouldn't chase anything here. Gold soared as the flight to safety trade took over for today. The precious metal futures rose over twenty five bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as bonds became a haven. The XAU jumped 6 2/3, whike GDX gained 1 3/4. Volume was heavy. It was a complete reversal from yesterdays price action here. I did put in an order for some GDX February calls but it never came close to being filled. I was too slow to react as the move in the gold shares caught fire. Getting short term overbought now for the gold shares but there is a little room for the indicators to go higher. But what happens if there is no invasion next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked again but did finish off of its best level of the day. It was up over 30. There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to go higher. If the indicators do continue up we'll see quite a drop in stock prices next week. I'm not so sure that will happen but the potential is there. Volatility rules for now. There will be some opportunities next week with options expiration but you'll have to be pretty nimble. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with something. However the risk will be elevated with not a lot of time left and inflated option premiums. Hopefully I'll be up for the challenge. Europe and Asia were lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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