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Tuesday, February 15, 2022

We got a bounce today as it now appears that the so called conflict in the Ukraine is not going to happen. The Dow climbed 422 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways as it cannot make up its mind where to go. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The inflation data was stronger than expected but the market shrugged it off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias going into the expiration on Friday. We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that has the potential to be a market mover. Too late for any SPY February option cycle trades for me at this point. Gold fell on the prospect of peace as the futures dropped $15. The US dollar fell as well but interest rates continued higher. The gold shares sold off early but made their way back. The XAU shed about 1 1/2 and GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today as the daily candlestick chart pattern there proved to be correct. The short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies that we'll see more gains for stocks. So for now we'll wait for the prices on the S&P to get back to the down trend line and decide what to do when they get there. That would be the area to try the SPY puts again but premiums will be high as we roll into the March option cycle. For now we'll just wait and see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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