Friday, December 03, 2021
The jobs report was weaker than expected but the Dow only dropped 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a positive. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Only a final hour rally prevented the day from being even worse. That holds off the bears for now but they are in control. The S&P is clinging to its 50 day moving average but I'm not sure that it is going to hold. Still 2 weeks left in the December option cycle. Gold bounced today with the futures up over $20. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares barely moving is not a positive for the bulls here. GDX remains short term oversold. My January calls here are still showing a loss but not as much as yesterday. I still think that this trade will work itself out and show a profit. Plenty of time left here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and remains short term overbought. The VIX reading is over 30 now and volatility should be with us for a while. It works both ways though as we've seen this week. My guess is that it will be pretty crazy when the Fed meets in a week and a half. Again, if we do get short term overbought before that, I'd like to try the SPY December puts. However at the rate the market is going here, we won't get the chance. Volume has picked up considerably to the downside and that fact cannot be ignored. If things don't hold up here soon a collapse is possible with the summation index close to the zero line. Lots of things to consider while going over the charts this weekend. Volatility does create opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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