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Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Now it's starting to get a little bit crazy out there as we had a one day reversal to the downside today. The Dow lost 462 points on heavy volume again. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is really moving down. Oversold to extremes on the McClellan oscillator and yet we are still moving down. Not sure how long this will continue but lower is the idea here. Things are oversold and there will be opportunities. My guess is that we've seen the highs in the market for a while. The easy money is going to dry up and what's left to move things after that? The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average and is already short term oversold. It might be time to just get out of the way. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but came off of its best levels. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX shed almost a point as the gold stocks followed the general market down. Volume was good. I did place an order for some more of the GDX January calls to lower my average price but the order wasn't filled despite the price hitting the bid. I may try again tomorrow but this would break a pretty solid rule of not to put more money into a losing trade. GDX is now oversold both short and medium term. We are also in a market environment that is out of control to the downside for stocks. It creates opportunities. Whether or not GDX is one of them will only be known after the fact. I'll have to think it over more tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to climb, remains overbought and it's anybodies guess where it goes next. The market has reached a free fall mode with volatility the main theme. And there's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to trade. Hold on to your hats as the summation index is approaching the zero line and that would move it into the crash zone. Not there yet and I would not expect it to happen but it could. Perhaps the sidelines would not be a bad place for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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