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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 652 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Losses all around as everything is being sold. The easy money Fed policies are coming to an end but the decline will be blamed on the new virus varient. Short term oversold now for the S&P but I don't expect any long lasting rally to take hold. We've seen the highs for the year. Support could come in around the 50 day moving average at 4535 for the S&P 500. It may or may not hold as we are in a selling mode on wall street for now. Gold dropped on the hawkish Fed comments today as the futures fell over ten bucks and below the near term support at $1780. The US dollar was a bit lower while interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX January calls are now showing a loss. The gold shares had a downside reversal today as they opened strong and then fell apart. Not a good sign for the precious metal bulls. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked back up today and the signals that I've been seeing here lately have been wrong. As long as the VIX remains above the 20 level, volatility will be on the increase both positive and negative. That much we can be sure of. We'll take our cues from the summation index and as long as it's moving lower the trend for stocks will be down. We'll get the beginning of a new month tomorrow and that usually means new money flows. But that may not mean anything the way things are headed at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. Perhaps the heavy volume today was a washout to the downside and we'll see some kind of bounce tomorrow. That's just a guess as usual. Things are getting interesting though. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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