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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Another day of selling as the Dow fell 240 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to turn sideways. Inflation data came in hotter than expected was the media culprit. But we know that the market was overbought to the extreme and the only solution would be some kind of decline. I still believe that it is just a bump in the road and not the beginning of an extended decline. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower though. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but do still remain in overbought terrotory. We'll see how the rest of the week plays itself out. Gold rallied with the December futures up over $20. The US dollar climbed along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX gained about 2/3. Volume was heavy as the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern for GDX was broken. This is a move that should be chased. GDX is stalling at its 200 day moving average but all signs point to higher prices going forward. I canceled my open order for the January calls and will decide what to do tonight with the next order. I'll have to move to a higher strike price but the rally in the gold shares is for real. Gold moving up on higher inflation is what we would expect but it hadn't been previously happening. Gold moving up with a stronger dollar and higher interest rates is a positive sign. Money is moving into this space and has been quietly for the past month. It doesn't appear that waiting for another pullback here is the proper strategy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was again higher today and is overbought. It remains below the 20 level. My guess is that the decline will be short lived according to this indicator. Most of the major stock indices remain pretty far from their 50 day moving averages still, even with the two day decline. So perhaps we will see some more near term selling. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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