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Thursday, November 04, 2021

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 33 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posting good gains to new all time highs. Remaining extremely overbought for the S&P 500 and some type of pullback is imminent. But that would only be a bump in the road as higher prices seem to be in the cards for the near future. Perhaps a run up into the November option expiration. The S&P is getting pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that is a condition that cannot last. But we won't try and step in front of the ongoing freight train. Gold rallied back as the futures rose thirty bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU dropped a point, while GDX shed a dime. Volume was average. Todays gold share price action was the oppostie of yesterday. Underperformance of the gold shares with a $30 rally in gold is not a positive sign. I'm still leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there though. The inverse potential head and shoulders pattern remains in place. As long as that is the case, the GDX calls still make sense to me. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that doesn't fit with the rise in the overall market. A possible double bottom is forming in the VIX but this indicator doesn't usually lend itself to technical patterns. Still oversold here but not extremely so. We've got the employment report to sift through tomorrow and the markets reaction to it. Nothing seems to be able to derail the flow of money into stocks at the moment. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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