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Monday, November 08, 2021

It was a day of just hanging around as the Dow rose 103 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow was the out-performer today as the other main indices had slight gains to new all time highs. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still overbought to the extreme on the major stock indexes. I believe that a sharp drop is coming and perhaps the inflation data will set things off. Or not as this rally has had legs galore. I think that it's been up 8 days in a row now for the S&P 500. Going straight up usually doesn't end well. Gold gained $9 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added over 1/8. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX January calls remains. I did notice some extremely high volume for a couple of strike prices on the GDX January calls. Perhaps the big money is loading up here. We'll see tomorrow if it expanded the open interest. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today with a gain in stocks. This does not fit again as the short term indicators here are moving higher but we haven't seen a decline in stock prices. It may mean that we will get some kind of blow off top soon but that's just a guess on my part. What is the case there is a disconnect between the VIX and stock prices at the moment. I'm not sure what it means. Price action was muted in Europe overnight, with Asia finishing mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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