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Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Moving higher today on better than expected retail sales as the Dow gained 54 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index continues to track sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. As long as that's the case the bulls are in control. Expect more new all time highs for the S&P 500 as the week progresses. Still short term overbought for the S&P but that won't stop things from going higher in my view. Gold was off $15 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb. Interest rates were higher as well. The XAU shed 2 1/4, while GDX lost almost 2/3. Volume was light. If the selling continues perhaps I'll get the chance to purchase the GDX January calls. A pullback from the breakout of the neckline for GDX would take us back to around the 33.50 area. GDX does still remain overbought here. We'll see how it goes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term technical indicators here are neither overbought or oversold. My guess here is that the VIX will trend lower as the market goes up this week. I'm expecting the usual positive expiration week bias to be in effect. I'd also expect the volume to start picking up as next week is holiday week with many players on vacation. Not much more economic data due out this week. We'll keep an eye on things but I would expect more buying as the week goes on. Both Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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