Friday, November 05, 2021
Still moving higher as the Dow gained 203 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The jobs numbers were better than expected and the market took off from the start. New all time highs on many indices again as the rally seemingly has no end. Overbought, staying that way and who knows how long it will last. Moving straight up and we know that the end won't be pretty. Overdue for some kind of pullback but none arrives. The Dow was the leader today. Gold rallied as the futures gained $25. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The market reaction for gold, the dollar and interest rates was the exact opposite of what you'd expect from a stronger jobs report. The XAU climbed over 3 1/2, while GDX was up a point. Volume was good. It appears that the inverse head and shoulders pattern for the gold shares is real. We have yet to break the neck line but the implications are that the gold shares still have a long way to go. Have I missed this trade again by not purchasing the GDX January calls this week? Maybe. But I'll be looking for some weakness next week to buy some and I'll move the strike price higher to get filled. It looks like a trade that will work out at this point. But we all know how markets are. They go where they want. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that certainly doesn't fit with a market up over 200 points. It is perhaps implying that some selling is due that will be short lived. We'll see. All of the stock indices are overbought and pretty far from their 50 day moving averages. Something has to give. We should at least see a day of pretty good selling next week. It doesn't mean that the rally will end but the overbought conditions need to be relieved. That will perhaps give us the opportunity to purchase some of the gold share calls going out to January. That's the plan for now since the ideal time to purchase has passed. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend to see if there's anything else that looks promising. Europe higher and Asia generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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