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Friday, November 26, 2021

Stock markets around the world collapsed as a new strain of the corona virus hit the news wires. The Dow dropped 905 points on half day heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. What was supposed to be a quiet light day of trading during the holiday was anything but that. I cannot remember the Friday after Thanksgiving being anything like today. But as always the market goes where it wants. Most everything was being sold as I'm sure margin calls went out. The S&P 500, like most of the major averages, had a gap lower to start the day. The short term technical indicators here are not yet oversold. So there's probably more selling to come. Throw in a tighter Fed stance and the party could be over for stocks. It is too soon to tell though. Gold rallied early on but it got sold as well. The futures finished slightly higher. The US dollar sold off as interest rates tanked on a flight to bonds. The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was good for a half days trade. Somehow the GDX January calls that I own stayed about the same despite the drop. Looks like some volatility premium was priced in. GDX has now broken its short term up trend line but did manage to close above the 50 day moving average. Perhaps I'm just looking for positives in a negative situation. The short term indicators here are oversold but not completely. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked much higher in a complete reversal of what yesterdays action said. It is now far above the 20 level and implies more volatility to come. Monday morning as well as next week should be pretty interesting. Was today an overreaction? Time will tell on that. The market doesn't like unknowns and that is what this new virus strain represents. We'll stick to the technicals which have now rolled over and are not yet completely oversold. Plenty to think about this weekend with 3 weeks left in the December option cycle. Europe and Asia got clobbered to end the week. It's Friday and time for some rest.

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