Tuesday, November 23, 2021
We were looking for a decent upside day for the Dow and we got one today as it rose 194 points on average volume. The advance/declines remain negative though. The summation index is moving down. It's been anything but a quiet holiday week so far. We'll get plenty of economic data out tomorrow ahead of Thanksgiving. So I'd expect some more significant price movement before everyone leaves for the week. Friday will be a shortened session for stocks with the major players on the sidelines. The S&P was higher today but the short term indicators are not giving any kind of signal. Not overbought here anymore but not oversold either. Gold conitnued to drop as the futures shed $15 and closed below $1800. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates continued to rise. The XAU lost over 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2. Volume was average. GDX is still holding the up trend line that began in the beginning of October but is not yet completely oversold on a short term basis. My GDX January calls as shwoing a small loss. The reason to get into this trade has now been invalidated. Holding the trend line is the only way to keep holding this trade. I'm not sure that will happen though. We'll keep an eye on it going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today but did come off of its best levels. Overbought on the short term technicals here and that implies that we'll see higher stock prices going forward. We'll see if that happens in the coming days. I think the question here and now is has this selling been the beginning of something real to the downside or just anothe blip in the road on the way to more all time highs? Time will tell but I certainly don't have a good feel for the answer at the moment. Some of the major stock indices have now retraced back to their consolidation breakout points. Holding in here would be necessary for the bullish cause. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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