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Tuesday, November 09, 2021

We saw some selling today and that was to be expected. The Dow fell 112 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. The inflation number today came in where expected but the market was overdue for some pullback. The NASDAQ led the way down but I don't think that the rally has ended. This is just a needed pause before we move higher in my humble opinion. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold continued higher with the futures up six bucks. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume was light. Not yet short term overbought on the indicators for the gold shares. I would really like to chase this move higher in GDX but cannot bring myself to do it. I missed the opportunity for the calls last week when I did not adjust the price corrrectly on my open order. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on GDX remains intact but hasn't broken through the neckline yet. I'm hoping now for a double right shoulder in order to buy the calls but hope is not a trading strategy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with todays decline. The VIX was pushed back at its 50 day moving average and remains below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are now overbought. This is one of the reasons to not be too bearish near term. The VIX doesn't stay overbought for lengthly periods of time. It should roll back down and that would correspond with a gain for stocks. We'll see how the market digests the next inflation report tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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