Monday, November 29, 2021
Buyers were out in full force today as the Dow gained 236 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Fears of the new virus mutation faded as not much is actually known about where this disease is headed. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. One day doesn't make a rally but at least the selling took a break for now. We've got the end of the month tomorrow. Employment numbers due out on Friday. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX is holding its 50 day moving average and is short term oversold. A bounce is due. My GDX January calls are showing a small loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX collapsed but remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have rolled over. This implies higher stock prices going forward. However we got the same read from the indicators right before Fridays collapse. As long as the VIX stays above 20, volatility should increase. The market is now also at a heightened level of response to headline risk due to the uncertainty of the latest virus varient. Nimble trading is required. If we do happen to get back to short term overbought in the SPY I will try the SPY December puts. Plenty of time to go in the December option cycle. Europe higher and Asia lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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