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Monday, November 01, 2021

We begin Fed week with a gain of 94 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive and volume was light. The summation index is moving higher. Yes, we'll get the Fed this week and it's expected that they will announce a tapering of the monthly bond purchases that have gone on since the pandemic began. This isn't exactly bullish news but it already been priced into the market most likely. In the meantime we continue to hit new all time highs in the stock indices and there is no overhead resistance. We remain short term overbought for the S&P 500 as is the case when a rally is underway. There's still plenty of money around to support stocks at the moment. Gold was up around $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. GDX is trying to hold on to its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. I did adjust my open order for the GDX January calls but may need to do so again in order to get filled here. I'm looking at a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart. The key word here is potential because the pattern has yet to be filled out. Ideally GDX would get down to the 31 level and my open order might get filled. The market though rarely cooperates with what anybody wants. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. We'll see what that means going forward. There will be plenty of market moving material to digest this week as we'll get economic numbers including the employment report along with the Fed. Earnings continue to come out as well. Plenty of time for a trade or two in the November option cycle. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to start the week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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