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Monday, December 20, 2021

Well is wasn't a complete disastor as the Dow fell 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It has now passed through the zero line. That's why I say it isn't as bad as it should be because we easily could have dropped a thousand points today. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays itself out. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down and still have room to go. We are in a positive seasonal time period but that won't matter if falling through the zero line on the summation index takes charge. We've now closed below the 50 day moving average on the S&P. I'll be on the sidelines and in no hurry to buy for now. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU and GDX ended little changed on light volume. That's a plus considering there was a drop in gold. My GDX January calls remain solid losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but didn't finish as high as it started out. The short term indicators here remain oversold so there is plenty of room to move higher on the VIX. If that occurs we'll see the kind of drop that passing through the zero line represents. If not we may move sideways for a while before the next rally begins. I'm leaning towards the latter because today really could have been a heavily down session but it wasn't. It was just a negative day. Europe and Asia were lower as selling takes over around the world. We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight and see how things go here tomorrow.

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