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Monday, December 06, 2021

The Dow soared today as the most watched index gained 647 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down but today could be the beginning on an attempt to turn this thing around. The summation index is getting close to the zero line and if the market doesn't hold up here we'll see a collapse. I'm not sure what's exactly in store going forward because we've seen some indexes really drop while the S&P 500 hasn't even had a 5% correction here. The Dow outperformed both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 today. If we somehow remain positive going into Friday, I'll try the SPY December puts. Otherwise I'll have to stay on the sidelines because things really could still go either way. Gold was off a few bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive but the lack of volume makes it suspect. My GDX January calls are still at a loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators here have rolled over. Normally that would imply higher prices in the near term but this hasn't been the case lately. The VIX is still far above the 20 level so I'd expect the volatility to continue. We'll see if we can get a more than one day advance. Not much data out this week but there will be inflation news on Friday. Ideally I'd like to own some of the SPY puts ahead of that. So we'll see how things go from here before the end of the week. As always the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Europe rallied to start the week while Asia was lower. We'll see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow.

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