Thursday, December 02, 2021
An oversold bounce back today as the Dow rose 617 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. It is a volatile period right now for stocks, with big moves in both directions on a daily basis. The Dow was the strongest performer of the big 3 today. We're still oversold on the S&P 500 even with todays gains. The jobs report will be out tomorrow and that should be the catalyst for more price movement. I'd still be cautious here even with todays gains. Gold continues to drop as the futures lost $15. Interest rates were slightly higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. I did go ahead and purchase some more of the GDX January calls and that trade is showing a small loss. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Technically now is the time that makes the most sense to get long. Overall the trade is losing money but there's seven weeks to go and my thinking is that we'll see the gold shares head up from here. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the rise in prices. Still short term overbought on the VIX and well above the 20 level. Lot's of time left in the December option cycle so I will hope to see a better rise in price in order to try the SPY December puts. Perhaps during expiration week but let's not ahead of ourselves. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what the employment report has to say and close out a volatile trading week tomorrow.
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