Thursday, December 16, 2021
We didn't get any upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow fell 29 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around and remains close to the zero line. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ getting the worst of it. The S&P 500 dropped but is still short term overbought. Not exactly sure what's going on here but it all could be December expiration related. Most major players will take care of business by the end of tomorrow as we've got the holidays right around the corner. I'm still of the belief that higher prices are in the near future and that the Santa Claus rally will come to pass. Gold got a bounce today as the futures gained over $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU jumped 6 1/8, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was good. It looks like yesterday put in a temporary bottom for gold and the gold shares. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls again at a lower strike price. It didn't get filled and I canceled it in the morning. My current GDX January calls are still big losers just not as much as before. There's still five weeks to go in this trade but I doubt the gold shares will move enough to turn this trade around. But who knows? It would take a lot more days like today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level with today price movement. It also still remains short term oversold. Each passing day seems to give a different signal as to the market going higher or lower. I still think that the zero line will hold on the summation index and stocks will begin to turn higher on a steady basis from here. The alternative scenario would be a collapse from here and that doesn't seem probable during this usually bullish time of the year. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.
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