Thursday, December 09, 2021
Just waiting on tomorrows inflation data as the Dow finished basically unchanged on the session. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative and the volume was light. The summation index has turned back up but may start tracking sideways. The overall market sold off though with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it in the morning. I still like this idea but now perhaps will wait until before the Fed announcement next Wednesday. Running out of time though as there's only six days left in the December option cycle. I also may just sit this one out since I'm already involved in the GDX call trade. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to roll over. If that does occur we'll be looking at lower prices. Gold dropped around ten bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX January calls are now solid losers and it may be time to think about just getting out of this trade. I'll see how gold reacts to the inflation data and take it from there. There's still time for the trade to work out but unless we see a quick turnaround this trade will be declared dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today as the 20 level has provided a floor for now. This was another reason to attempt the SPY puts because it implies that volatility is about to go up again. We'll see if that actually happens. So the market is again at an interesting juncture. Tomorrow sould tell us something about where we are going. Perhaps a retest of the recent lows? Europe was lower and Asia generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the latest inflation data tomorrow.
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