Wednesday, December 15, 2021
The Fed spoke and the market did whatever it felt like and the Dow climbed 374 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but will be trying to turn back up. It should be successful as nobody wants to see the market fall apart for the holidays. Increased tapering and increased chances of rate hikes from the Fed did not lead to selling. It was already in the market. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we're going to see new all time highs as we are practically there. Other indices will follow. A couple of days left before expiration and we'll see where we go. Gold was lower for much of the session but then turned around and the futures were up a few bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly higher. Not at all what you'd expect with a tighter Fed. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was heavy here as it appears that the gold stocks may have put in a bottom here. They finished well up form the lows of teh day. Of course that won't save my GDX January calls as they rmeain solid losers. GDX is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and we could see a rally back to that. Won't be enough to help my trade though. Perhaps I'll try the January calls again at a lower strike price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned back down is is below the 20 level again. It remains short term oversold. I haven't been able to figure this indicator out lately but as long as it remains oversold the path of least resistance for stocks will be up. We're getting close to Santa Claus rally time also. We'll be looking for higher prices to end the week as the market has rallied on what should be considered bad news. The zero line on the summation index should hold up this time around. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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