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Monday, December 13, 2021

We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days and we got it today as the Dow fell 320 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to roll over. The NASDAQ led the way down and that isn't a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over. If this continues it won't be good for stocks. Waiting on the Fed announcement for Wednesday but many are saying it's already in the market. We'll still to the technicals and the S&P 500 is short term overbought on some of them. Probably too late for the SPY December puts if you wanted to try them but who knows? Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar rose while interest rates dropped. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on the day. Volume was average. My GDX January calls continue to lose ground and if we don't see some gains here this week I will be taking the loss and moving on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level today. It also closed above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Still short term oversold here. This indicator has been tough to figure out lately but it has shown that volatility is here to stay for a while. Not exactly sure where the market goes from here now as a case can be made either way. I'll probably stay on the sidelines and wait to see what the Fed has to say on Wednesday. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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