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Friday, October 16, 2026

Back to selling on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 175 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is traveling in a slight upwards sloping channel. Once again the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ fell over 2% and the S&P 500 over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back lower with some steam. The daily candlestick chart has turned around with a bearish engulfing pattern. The short term up trend line here has now been violated. I'm not sure what is going on here but I'm back to advising some caution until we can figure things out for stocks. Gold was up $19 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished just a touch lower. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. The gold shares did not follow the overall market lower. That is further evidence that the GDX November calls is probably the place to be. My open order for them remains out there but probably has to be adjusted in order to get filled. I'll be hoping for some sort of pullback in the gold shares early next week but hope is not a trading strategy. The down trend line in place for GDX now comes in at 90. The weekly indicators are stalling at the mid-range level and the irregular inverse head and shoulders pattern remains in place on the weekly chart. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and closed at the 20 level after being above it during the session. Its short term indicators are moving up and are almost overbought. The VIX will have to be watched carefully here because if it starts getting above the 20 level the volatility will be greater along with the losses for stocks. Or perhaps todays sell off was option expiration related, in which case things could turn back up for the S&P going forward. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend as we try and plan what to do next. Not a lot of economic data due out next week. There's an extra week in the November option cycle so the premiums are pricey. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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