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Friday, October 09, 2026

Buyers took control today as the Dow climbed 423 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. It eventually will as it is blown out to the downside and probably sooner rather than later. The Dow led things higher today which isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Its short term indicators are still overbought. It looks poised to go higher but the volume to upside today was lacking. Moving into options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will be in effect. Gold rallied $63 on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates nudged higher. The XAU gained 9 points and GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares higher with no apparent news to drive them and we'll take notice. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher with plenty of room to go. The short term down trend line on GDX comes in at 92. If it gets through there the rally will be on. I believe that it has already started but am hoping for some kind of move lower in the next couple of days to fill todays gap on the daily chart. Markets rarely cooperate. Perhaps the inflation data next week will give us the opportunity to purchase the GDX November calls. The weekly GDX candlestick chart has a potential loosely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern appearing in the past seven months. If that comes to fruition the gains for the gold shares would be very good. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an upside market. The short term indicators here are pointing south. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower. A back and forth week for stocks but it really looks like things are about to get going to the upside. The medium term indicators have been oversold for too long. Perhaps earnings season will have the buyers out in force again. Inflation data out next week should move the markets. I probably will not try the SPY options as I don't see a solid signal there at the moment. I am looking to try the gold share calls again. I'll check the charts over the next two days to make sure that I have some type of game plan for next week. It already looks like the inflation numbers are supposed to be high. That means if they go up but not as much as expected, traders will view that as a positive. Just a guess there on my part. We'll stick with the technicals. Asia and Europe finished up on the last day of the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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