Back to the downside as the Dow fell 403 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. After breifly being in positive territory at the start, the market moved lower all day. Yesterdays big gain was a mirage. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 turned back down. At this point I think the best we can hope for next week is sideways instead of straight down. Bank earnings were mixed. Retail sales were flat which missed expectations. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P now posts a bearish configuration. We could not build on yesterdays gains. Options expiration week will be upon us. Anyones guess which way things will go. The usual positive market bias there will be hard to come by in this bearish atmosphere. Gold was off $28 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX was down a point. Volume was average. I dumped the GDX October calls for about an 80% loss. Selling yesterday would have resulted in an acceptable 50% loss. Obviously should not have waited. This trade was a disastor. The entry was horrible, then it showed a decent gain which I let turn into an unacceptable loss. So it checked off all the boxes for a terribly managed trade. Not sure what my train of thought was there or if there even was any. We'll put it behind and move on. I might even try the GDX calls again next week for a short term trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged on the session which makes no sense whatsoever. A big move down for stocks and no movement on the VIX? I have no idea what is going on with this indicator. The VIX is in a solid uptrend though and that could make for a rocky week for stocks coming up. The VIX is overbought on a weekly basis. Options expiration week with more earnings reports on tap for next week. It won't be boring. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and see if I can find a trade for next week although the short term trades are not exactly my best ideas sometimes. Volatility will certainly be something to consider. Europe and Asia were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility with a vengeance as the Dow opened down over 500 points lower and then finished the day up 827 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We got a signal last night on the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next couple of sessions and we certainly saw it today. The inflation data was worse than expected which explains the early sell off but I can't say there's any reason for the rally. We were looking for an oversold bounce and we got it. Rallies out of nowhere are classic bear market traits. However todays price action has the makings of an exhaustion to the downside, which would mean higher prices going forward for a more extended period of time. That's my best guess at the moment. A market that rallies on bad news is also usually bullish. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned up. We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow. The NASDAQ wasn't the leader today. It was one of the wilder days on Wall street. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses but came back from their lows of the session just like the overall market. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are still mid-range. My GDX October calls are solid losers and they're running out of time. Not sure why I'm still holding this position but I'm thinking that it has a chance to reach break even. We'll see. The trade has already been poorly executed and a part of me also thinks it's time to take the loss and move on. Nothing comes easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have turned down. We'll see where it goes from here. The daily chart looks like it wants to go lower which would imply more upside for stocks. But I haven't been able to figure the VIX out lately. We'll get a look at retail sales tomorrow along with some bank earnings. Asia lower and Europe higher last night. We'll close out the trading week on Friday.

Inflation data failed to have a big impact as the Dow was off 28 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The producer inflation data was a bit higher than expected but it did not cause any massive selling that we've seen lately with these reports. We'll see what happens with the consumer number tomorrow. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. I'm expecting a short term bounce in the stock indexes but it hasn't happened yet. I suppose there's always a chance that things will fall apart again tomorrow if the inflation data comes in worse than expected but that is not what I'm looking for. Most of the major stock indices are oversold and some have potential positive RSI divergences. So we'll see how it goes. Gold was off about $5 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain mid-range. My GDX October calls are still sporting a small loss. GDX could be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on its daily candlestick chart. Or that could simply be wishful thinking on my part. We'll know in due time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the day. The short term techniclas remain overbought. The 50 day moving average here has just crossed through the 200 day which implies higher VIX readings going forward. Which in turn means more volatility and lower stock prices. However we'll just have to wait and see what the market decides to do here. Europe and Asia were both lower again as there are no buyers for now. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data on Thursday.

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market was lower. The most watched index added 36 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ was the downside leader and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is on the cusp of making new lows. We'll get the producer inflation numbers tomorrow and my guess is that is won't be as bad as anticipated. But that's just a guess. The NASDAQ closed on a new low but the Russell 2000 is holding up better than the rest. The Russell led the way down and now could be the canary in the coal mine for at least a short term rally here. But we'll know more as the week unfolds. Regardless, we're still in the grips of a bear market. Gold was off a couple bucks today. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a touch to the upside. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better than average volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range, so we could go either way here. The near term will be directed by the reaction to the inflation data. My GDX October calls are now back in the red. I have certainly rode this trade up and down and that is a recipe for disastor. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is getting to short term overbought but not there yet. Hard for me to figure out what the VIX means lately. The only thing for sure is that it implies more volatility going forward. I do think that it is an opportune time to put some longer term funds to work here and I did just that today. It would be pretty lucky to catch the bottom of this bear but my thought today is that we'll be higher than todays close by the end of the year. I could be wrong and often am. But with the longer term money you don't have to be completely exact and you have time on your side unlike the options trading. Both Europe and Asia were down. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We did not get the significant downside follow through to Fridays selling today as the Dow ended lower by 93 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It was basically a day of hanging around as the market could not find a direction of travel. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower as the overall market was weaker than the Dow. Getting short term oversold for the S&P 500 but not completely there yet. It also looks like the short term indicators downward movement is starting to stall here. Waiting on inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down $35 on the futures. The US dollar was up and the bond market was closed for a holiday. The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was light. Considering the drop that we saw in gold, the gold shares held up rather well. Not sure what it means going forward but the gold shares continue to out perform the metal itself. My GDX October calls are now back to where I bought them. I have obviously held on to this trade for too long as the management of it has been abysmal. Less than 2 weeks left in the October option cycle. The short term indicators for GDX continue to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but came back from its best levels of the session. The short term technical indicators here are pointing up. The 50 day moving average is about to cross the 200 day to the upside on the VIX which would imply more volatility and lower stock prices. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The market got whacked today as the Dow fell 630 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move lower. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but not by much. That gave sellers some ammo I guess as we had a gap lower at the open and continued down from there. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bears. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. After a huge start higher to begin the week, we are ending with a thud. It kind of has a feel as if things might just start to fall apart but we are already oversold for an extended period of time. I'm not sure what's next for the market at this stage. Gold dropped almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates rose as well. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. I don't know why I'm still holding on to the GDX October calls that I own. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. There is still two weeks left in these options but after today you have to think that gold is going lower with the overall market. I still have a price target that I thought would be met before expiration but this obviously could be wrong. The trade is still showing a small profit and I probably should have taken that today and been done with it. It looks like there could be a lousy exit for this trade to go with the lousy entry. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as you would have expected with the market tanking like it did. The short term indicators here are around mid-range still. I'm not sure what we have going on with this indicator right now either. I will have to regroup over the weekend and try to figure out what to do next. With a couple of weeks to go in the October option cycle, there's still plenty of time to come up with a SPY trade. However with the market acting as it is at the moment and my inability to figure things out the sidelines might be a better idea. I will have to come up with a strategy for the current GDX call trade though. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling ahead of the employment report as the Dow fell 346 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative for the second day in a row. The summation index is now tracking sideways. Not a huge decline or one to worry about in my mind as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are stalling at the mid-range level. So you could make a case for going either way here. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report tomorrow and go from there. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was a bit above average. Some of the indicators for GDX are short term overbought. During rallies the indicators can remain overbought as price moves higher. That is the situation that I believe we're in with regards to GDX. I have an upside target there but we haven't reached it yet. Since there is still 2 weeks left in the October option cycle, I've decided to hang on to this trade for now. It is still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with a market decline. However the VIX moved a lot higher than todays minor volatility would normally suggest. Not sure what that implies. The short term technical indicators for the VIX are starting to turn back up. The stock market has stalled after the huge gains to begin the week. That is not unexpected. How we close the week out will be important. More selling tomorrow will put into question the recent bottom. If we have a positive session it will be a plus for the bulls. At this point all we can do is wait and see. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A pause in the upside today as the Dow fell 42 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to turn around to the upside and I suspect that it will be successful. Digesting the huge gains of the first two days of the week is what I think we have going on here. We opened with a gap lower but unlike recent market action todays decline was met with buyers that eventually took the market higher before dropping back down near the close. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up and have room to go higher. It feels like some type of bottom has been put in. The question remains whether or not this is the end of the decline that started in the beginning of the year. Tomorrow should be a waiting for the jobs report kind of day. Gold dropped $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell around 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was better than average. GDX is now hanging around its 50 day moving average. My GDX October calls lost some ground and it's possible that yesterday was the day to sell them. I'm hanging on to them for now though it may not be the proper strategy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The short term indicators are moving down but look like they're beginning to stall. Not sure what to expect next here but Friday should tell the story. Fundamentally nothing has changed for the stock market. However the technical measurements got so out of whack to the downside that some kind of upwards movement was long overdue. We got that upside the first two days of this week. The question is just how long it will last. It seems like buyers are willing to step in now where before they dissappeared. We'll just have to wait and see where we go from here. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Upside follow through as the Dow gained 825 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up here from a deeply negative position. That usually means that the decline is over for now and this rally will have legs. It is also possible that the decline has ended for good but we'll only know that as time moves on. We did meet the measuring objective from the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 at 3600 on Friday. Sellers have hit the sidelines for now. It looks like we may have missed the best opportunity to put longer term funds to work. But we'll see where we go from here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have finally turned back up from being oversold. We are also heading back towards the 50 day moving average which is something that we've been looking for. Today we made it past the first down trend line for the S&P. The next one comes in at around 3925 and there is resistance at 3900 as well. That seems to be where we are headed in the short term. Gold was up another $30 on the futures. The US dollar sank and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU added almost 3 points, while GDX was up around 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. GDX is getting to be short term overbought and I have to consider selling my October calls here. I do have a higher price target in mind and the options still have over two weeks left in them. So I'm also considering being patient and perhaps getting out at a higher price on the option premium. Always plenty of unknown decisions to be made in the game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but not by much considering the huge move higher we had in stocks. Not sure what that means. The short term technical indicators are mid-range on the VIX. My thinking is that near term the VIX will head down and stocks will continue up. We'll see. Earnings season is about to get under way and all I'm seeing and hearing is that it will be worse than expected. So we'll expect the opposite. Companies will drag down their estimates and then surprisingly beat them in this shell game that comes around each quarter. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Now today we saw a nice oversold short covering bounce as the Dow soared 765 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. A sharp rally out of the blue is typical for your usual bear market. This rise could have legs though as we have a positive RSI divergence on the SPY daily chart. Not to mention that we've been short term oversold for weeks. And I have mentioned more than once that we are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average on many stock indices. Not sure if this is the bottom though as the NASDAQ didn't lead today. But it's a great start to the month for the bulls. Gold jumped $35 on the futures today and closed above $1700. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 5 points, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good again to the upside. My GDX October calls are now solidly in the black. GDX is now at its 50 day moving average and that should provide some near term resistance. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely there yet. Plenty of time left in this trade but the key will be when to sell it as the entry was not good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and the short term indicators have rolled over. It seems to me that the VIX should go lower and stocks higher from here but who knows? We'll know more as the week goes on. One day doesn't make a rally. Europe was higher and what was open in Asia mixed. Parts of Asia are on holiday this week. We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.

September ended with a thud as the Dow fell 500 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data was a little worse than expected but after an initial small sell off the market had a morning rally. That didn't last either as sellers took over. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and closed below the 3600 support level. The Dow led the way down today. We are long overdue for more than just the bounce that we saw on Wednesday but the market seems to have other plans. We have yet to see any sustained buying or a major bout of short covering. Getting even further away from the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock indices. That will not last forever. Gold was flat again on todays session, this time after being higher early on. The US dollar was little changed and interest rates rose a bit. The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume was good here again. Perhaps today was the day to dump the GDX October calls as GDX closed off of its highs for the day. Some of the very short term indicators got overbought. The GDX October calls that I have are still in the black though and the price and volume lately have been constructive to the bullish side. There's also 3 weeks left in the October option cycle so plenty of time remains. The weekly candlestick chart on GDX now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it. So I'm giving the gold shares the benefit of the doubt for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished the day a bit lower and that does not fit with a down market. I'm not sure what's going on here with the VIX except that volatility is the rule for now. The S&P 500 closed on its 200 week moving average which should provide some support. However some of the other major stock indexes have already closed below this average on their weekly charts, including the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. Next weeks price action will be perhaps more important than usual. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to get ready. Europe was up and Asia mixed again to finish out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today but a last hour bounce kept things from being worse. The Dow fell 458 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 is holding the 3600 for now and remains short term overbought. Still far away from the 50 day moving average here so I think that 3600 will hold for now. But that's just a guess on my part. We'll get inflation data tomorrow morning and see what happens after that. What we really need to experience is some kind of wash out to the downside event to know for sure that the decline is over. When everybody just throws in the towel on heavy volume. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was flat on the day after being lower early. The US dollar was lower for a second day in a row, while interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/8 and GDX added a dime. Volume was good here again. The gold shares are starting to be out performers and we haven't seen that in a while. I'm still holding on to the GDX October calls and they somehow are still showing a small profit. What I've noticed here for the GDX call options is that the premiums are pretty high compared to where the underlying index is. That usually means that the market makers know something and are making you pay up to participate. We'll see how it plays out going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but came off of its best levels. Yesterday I thought the VIX was implying higher stock prices. Lately I just can't figure this indicator out. Above the 30 level and still short term overbought. We'll get the Feds preferred inflation gauge tomorrow and that should provide for an interesting market open. My thought is that it could go either way. We also have the end of the month and the quarter on tap. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Today we got the inevitable bounce that we were looking for as the Dow soared 548 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. Today we got some relief from the extreme oversold conditions that have stuck around longer than usual. Now we have to ask ourselves if the decline is over. It very well could be as the S&P 500 along with other major indexes managed to hang on at the June lows. However the same negative market fundamentals are in place. The only case for a rally would be technical in nature. The truth is nobody knows where we are going from here. Things could turn back down Friday with the inflation data. However with the both the short and medium term technical indicators for the market extremely oversold, the odds favor at least some kind of stabalization. Even if it's just sideways movement for a while. The S&P 500 is still pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. Gold rallied $33 on the futures. The US dollar finally had a down day and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 6 1/8, while GDX rose 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The gold shares as well were overdue for some kind of bounce after being beaten down for months. The same question can be asked of whether this is the end of their decline or just a one day wonder. The underlying fundamentals for gold haven't changed and they're negative. On the plus side the GDX October calls that I have are now shwoing a small profit. Yesterday I thought that I would just exit on a bounce. Today I'm considering holding them a bit longer. There is plenty of time in the October option cycle for this trade. I did place another order for the gold share calls overnight at a closer to the money strike price but it wasn't filled. At least the ideas are moving in the right direction. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and implies higher stock prices to come. The short term indicators here have rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. However I haven't been able to really figure out what's going on with the VIX lately. Todays rally out of nowhere also is classic bear market action. But I do think that we are in for some kind of pause at least for the recent decline. I could be wrong. Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It was a one day downside reversal for the Dow but that probably doesn't mean much in this extremely oversold market condition. The most watched index fell 125 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. Opened higher, closed lower as the malaise continues. The NASDAQ managed a gain though. I still say that a bounce is coming this week as the S&P 500 is pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. I'm not saying the bounce will mean anything but the oversold condition must be relieved at some point. As I have already said we are at extremes for some of our indicators. Some of that pressure has to be worked off and then we will probably head even lower. A big rally out of nowhere is the hallmark of a bear market decline and I am fairly sure we'll get it this week before the end of the month. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. My GDX October calls are solidly in the red. I did place an order for some more at a closer to the money strike price but the order was not filled. I'm still considering purchasing some more calls here but it would have to be before the overall stock market bounce that I'm looking for. I also am hoping to get out of the current GDX trade on that bounce because the entry was ill timed and I would like to either cut the loss or get out even. Could just be wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and is just about at 35 which has been close to the top of the range since the decline began in January. The VIX remains short term overbought on its technical indicators and has been for an extended period. That is unusual but we are in unusual times at the moment. Asia was slightly higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We remain very oversold as the market is at least trying to halt the decline but the Dow lost 329 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The McClellan oscillator is now about as negative as it gets but that doesn't mean that we can't go lower. We are at extremes here for oversold market behavior. We will see a pretty good bounce at some point this week in my opinion. The NASDAQ is holding up better than the other major averages so we are probably at some kind of low even if it is just temporary. That said it remains to be seen when we'll see some kind of sustained rally in the near term. We did see an attempt at a bounce into the close again. Perhaps we can build off of that tomorrow. If not it will probably be just more of the same. Maybe the sidelines is the place to be for now. Gold fell again as the futures dropped around $25. Heading for the $1600 level or so it seems. The US dollar is moving straight up and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU lost 2 1/3,while GDX fell a little over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. My GDX October calls are solid losers but I am expecting a bounce for the gold shares soon as well. Very oversold here as well. I am considering getting some more of the GDX October calls at a closer to the money strike price tomorrow. What we are witnessing in the markets right now is an oversold extreme. It is the opposite of the overbought extreme that is occurring at this moment in the US dollar. Things that start to go straight up tend to always end with a move straight back down. We have a month to see a drop in the dollar and a rise for gold. That is why I'm considering getting some more of the gold share calls even though I'm currently in a losing position with them. I'll think about it some more tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher, is short term overbought and above the 30 level. Volatility is the watch word. If the VIX gets above the 35 level, that could be about it for the decline in the near term. At the rate we're going we'll get there tomorrow. Summation index moving with big gaps to the downside and through the zero line. The McClellan oscillator approaching the -400 level extreme. Markets oversold and staying that way. These are things that don't happen very often. Opportunities are there if you can take advantage of them but be careful. Asia and Europe were down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The selling continues but buyers did appear in the final hour to keep things from getting worse. The Dow fell 486 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is in freefall. The McClellan oscillator is below -300 which doesn't happen very often. So we are in very interesting times. Short term oversold still for the major averages and staying that way. I'm expecting some kind of bounce that is way overdue but when remains the question. Most of the major stock indexes have made it to their June lows and now we will see if thay hold. The S&P 500 is pretty far from its 50 day moving average and should at least try to get back towards it soon. Things are overdone to the downside but there still are not a lot of reasons to be investing at the moment. However in the longer term the time to be buying is when everyone else is selling. Gold fell about $30 on the futures. The US dollar soared while interest rates were mixed. Rates did come back from their highs of the session, probably in a flight to safety. The XAU fell 5 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside and prices set new yearly lows for the gold share indices. My open order for the GDX October calls got filled and it's already a loser. I'll probably be getting rid of this trade sooner rather than later. However it does have plenty of time left in the October option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 30 today before falling back. Overbought on the short term here but we've seen the VIX get higher in the current down trend that began in January. I'm not sure where the VIX goes from here as I haven't had a good feel for this indicator lately. Overall it was a rough week for stocks. September still has a week to go. We are quite oversold though and a big bounce out of nowhere is entirely possible. However the longer term outlook is not looking positive for stocks despite todays depressed levels. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. As long as the summation index is moving lower that will be the path for the stock market. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide exit from equities. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Attempting to stabalize as the Dow fell 107 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. Short term oversold on all the major stock indices. The market is holding up rather well considering we are crossing the zero line on the summation index. Perhaps things will hold in here and we won't see the collapse that we are in the zone for. We'll know in the coming days. Blown out on the downside to be sure and maybe we'll get a near term bounce. But there are no good reasons to be an investor at the moment and there is more bad news to come as rates continue to climb. Gold rose $5 after being down more early on. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves lower on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Lately the VIX has been leading the market on a short term bais. If that is the case again expect to see higher prices tomorrow. We'll see. On the sidelines with regards to any trades for now. The GDX October call order remains open. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow fell 522 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The Fed came and went with the expected rise in interest rates. Stocks then bounced back and forth in a huge trading range before deciding to head lower and staying there. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Combine that with the summation index on the doorstep of the zero line and we could be looking at quite a drop in the very near future. Like tomorrow. Some of what we work with is telling us that we could see some strength in the near term as well. However it doesn't look like that means more than just a bounce in the ongoing down trend. Seasonality doesn't favor stocks right now as well. We closed on the low for the day. We'll stick with the summation index direction and look for lower prices going forward. A test of the June lows perhaps? Gold was up ten bucks on the futures in a flight to safety I'm guessing. The US dollar hit a new yearly high while interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume. It appears that the gold shares can't make up their mind which way to go here. My open order for the GDX calls is still out there. I've decided to not chase anything here and if the gold shares drop perhaps the order will get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was all over the map today as well. It did finish higher which fits a down market. It broke through the 28 level only to fall back, drop to 25 1/2 and then close at 28. Not sure exactly what to expect next from this indicator. More overbought than oversold on the short term indicators here. We've got the Fed out of the way and we'll have to see what the next catalyst is for stock prices. It appears that we are falling through the zero line on the summation index and that is a rare event. Look out below is the general rule when it happens. Tomorrow could be even more interesting than today. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 313 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. We opened with a gap lower and were negative for the whole session. There were a couple of attempted rallies. The NASDAQ did hold up better than the other major averages. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Waiting on the market reaction to the Fed but what about after that? The summation index is close to the zero line, so the possibility of the market tanking is possible. There also aren't any compelling reasons to be buying stocks at this juncture. But the market goes where it wants. Option premiums are inflated for the SPY with the recent volatility combined with an extra week in the October cycle. So we will have to wait for the next trade there. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was light. Today the gold shares under performed. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX rose today as the market dropped. Once again the 28 level contained the rise there. Getting short term overbought for the VIX but not all the way there yet. Not sure what to expect next here with the VIX but if it gets past 28 we'll see a big drop in stocks. The Fed will raise rates tomorrow, Jerome Powell will speak and who knows what the markets will do? My guess is that we'll either see a good short covering rally or another downdraft for stocks. One thing for sure is that it won't be boring. So we'll see. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Waiting on the Fed for this post expiration Monday as the Dow gained 197 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Short covering is the most likely scenario for todays positive price action. However there is a potential positive divergence on the daily RSI indicator for the S&P 500. That could lead to a longer lasting move higher. But I don't see any huge rally in the works as the market has plenty going against it at the moment. Not the least of which is a restrictive Fed coming out with another rate increase on Wednesday. We are short term oversold on the major stock averages so a bounce here would not be out of the question. The summation index does continue to move down and is approaching the zero line. So the potential to fall apart is upon us as well. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was about average. The gold shares continue to out perform the metal. This is bullish. I still have my open order for the GDX October calls out there. The short term technicals for GDX are mid-range. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. If the gold shares continue higher from here it will just be a missed opportunity. I don't feel like chasing it here but that could change. Things are blown out to the downside for the precious metals complex. But the fundamentals at the moment don't inspire confidence of a sustained move to the upside. Just perhaps an October option cycle trend higher. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with stocks gaining ground. This indicator looks like it wants to go lower which would mean more near term gains for stocks. It does remain above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages though. Hard for me to get a read on what the VIX is doing here lately. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. It's all about the Fed. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Still heading lower as the Dow fell 139 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. It could have been worse as the Dow was off 400 at one point. Perhaps a temporary bottom is now in place or the buying simply could have been expiration related. We'll know more after the price action next week. The NASDAQ still led the way lower but it too came up from the lows of the day. The S&P broke through the 3900 level and closed below it. That is not a plus. The summation index is moving down and approaching the zero line. That means that the market has the chance to simply fall apart in the coming days. I'm not saying it's going to happen but the potential is there. We've got the Fed next week and it should be a waiting game until Wednesday. Perhaps we'll get some short covering ahead of the meeting because there's really no reason to be a buyer at this point. Gold bounced back six bucks. The US dollar was slightly lower and so were interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume. The gold shares did come up off of the lows for the session. My open order for the GDX October calls wasn't filled and I'm considering changing it to get the long position. The gold shares continue to act well relatively here and I do think that the October call options are the way to go. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling somewhat remorse for not holding on to the SPY September puts longer. I did not have the patience or the nerve to hang on until today which turned out to be the proper strategy. I had considered it on Tuesday after the big drop but could not bring myself to do it. Trading and regrets sometimes go hand in hand. More importantly though is the ability to forget the last trade and keep moving forward. Not easy but it is part of the game. The VIX was barely higher and capped again at the 28 level. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over which would imply higher stock prices for the near term. I'm not exactly sure that is going to happen. I haven't had a good handle on the VIX lately. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to get ready for next week. An extra week in the October option cycle doesn't make things any easier. Asia and Europe were both lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing to the downside as the Dow fell 173 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to move down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The economic data out today was mixed. It appears that the battle for 3900 on the S&P 500 is on. We did dip below there in the final hour today but made it back above by the close. Getting short term oversold on the S&P but not all the way there yet. I don't think that 3900 will hold but we'll see. Option expiration tomorrow so anything can happen. If the summation index does continue lower towards the zero line we may test the June lows. Hasn't happened yet and there is no impending doom but it's possible given where we are. The market hasn't been able to sustain a rally since the inflation report this past Tuesday. Gold fell $36 on the futures and is solidly below the $1700 level. The US dollar was steady but interest rates continued their climb. The XAU dropped 3 points and GDX shed 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. Despite the drop the gold shares continue to do better on a relative basis than the price of gold. My open order for the GDX October calls is still out there. The prices of the GDX call options for October are holding up better than you would think given the decline in the gold shares. That tells us something. I still like this idea and the order will possibly get filled if the S&P 500 breaks 3900 and takes the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today. I'm still not getting a good read from the short term indicators here. Expiration Friday should be interesting. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the weeks trading tomorrow.

A day of stabalization as the Dow rose 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. It was back and forth for much of the session but no big moves either way. The NASDAQ was the leader today but we don't know if the decline is all of a sudden done. It is option expiration week so there are plenty of things in play. The fact that we didn't follow through lower today is a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not overbought or oversold. With only 2 days left in the September option cycle the risk was too much for me to hold on to the SPY puts and I sold them today. The exit was poor as the market rallied in the final half hour and I simply got out. Had I been more nimble I would have had better results. The profit was 400% in two days but it should have been better. I also didn't have the guts to hang on until Friday but we'll see where we go from here. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on lighter volume. The gold shares continue to hold up rather well despite gold itself. My open order for the calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I did not exit the SPY trade in good fashion. I did have a chance for better profits but wanted to see how the close went. Unfortunately it went against me. However you've got to keep moving in the game and that trade has been completed so we'll have to move on. October has an extra week in the option cycle so premiums will be higher than usual. The VIX dropped as the 28 level has proven to be a ceiling here lately. The short term indicators here are mixed and I'm not getting a good feel for what's about to happen with the VIX next. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow led by the retail sales numbers. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sometimes the market doesn't act rational. Today was one of those times. The Dow got clobbered when the inflation report came in hotter than expected. The most watched index fell 1276 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned back lower. Not sure if the summation index will track sideways or start heading down to the zero line. The NASDAQ led the way lower and lost over 5%. Major markets opened with a gap lower and traveled down for much of the session. The S&P 500 is close to the support at 3900. What happens there will tell the story as 3900 is the line in the sand for the bulls. It is expiration week so anything can and will happen. My SPY September puts are in the black. Now the question is when to sell them. I suppose we'll keep an eye on the 3900 level and take it from there. The stop loss order has been modified to lock in a profit if the market turns back up here. Gold was off over $25 on the futures. The US dollar resumed its climb higher as did interest rates. The XAU fell 4 1/4, while GDX lost a point. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators have moved lower for GDX. However the gold shares, despite todays losses, held up rather well. My open order for the GDX October calls remains in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and is back above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are mixed. We closed at the recent highs for the VIX at 27 and change. Yes, it could go higher but whether or not it does is the question. Only 3 days left in the September option cycle. We'll get producer inflation data tomorrow and I don't think it will be viewed like the consumer numbers today. I could be wrong. Retail sales and other data due Thursday. The market will have plenty of excuses to go one way or the other. However after todays debacle it will be hard to see a quick turnaround for stocks. But anythings possible in this game. Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A positive start to expiration week as the Dow gained 189 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The S&P 500 broke through the near term down trend line. The short term indicators here are moving higher with room to go. It looks like there is no way to go but higher from here. That said, I did purchase the SPY September puts today ahead of tomorrows inflation report. My entry could have been a little better but it wasn't bad. The closing price is right about where I got them this morning. This trade will hinge on the reaction to tomorrows data. We do not trust light volume rallies and that is what we've witnessed here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was about average. The gold shares have been acting much better lately. They are approaching short term overbought but aren't there yet. Any pullback would be a chance to get the GDX October calls in my opinion. My open order for them is still out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that does not fit with a positive stock market. Not sure what it means but it did close back above the 50 day moving average. It could make for an interesting session tomorrow. The consensus is for a benign print on the consumer inflation data. We cannot predict the numbers but it's safe to say they'll have an effect one way or the other. Sticking with the technicals is always the way to go in our opinion. Our view is that we got the light volume rally off of the recent lows that we were looking for and an attempt at a short term trade now involving the SPY September puts is worth the risk here. We'll find out tomorrow if it was the proper idea. Much of Asia was on holiday but open markets were higher. Europe was up as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More upside today as the Dow gained 377 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to try and turn around. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader. I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled. I'll probably try again on Monday because we are seeing a light volume rally going up to the near term down trend line in the S&P. It is possible that I'm too late though. It all depends on the price action Monday. The short term technical indicators for the S&P along with the other major averages have turned back up. So we also have the possibility that a bottom is in place and that the rally for the past three days will continue. But you have to pick your side and for now I'm going with a bearish scenario at the trend line. Inflation data on Tuesday will provide some answers when we get the market reaction to it. We'll have all weekend to decide what to do. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up almost three points and GDX gained 3/4. Volume was about average. The gold shares are out performing the metal itself and this week is the first time we've seen that for a while. It's a positive. Any pullback in the gold shares can be bought in my opinion. But once again we may already be too late if the gold indices simply continue to move higher. My order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and there's still some room on the short term indicators to go lower. It fits with the higher stock prices that we're seeing. Perhaps we should just pay attetion to what's happening here but we'll know more on Monday. We can make a case for the S&P to get to 4100 before a pause but that would put it through the down trend line. It did close above its 50 day moving average today. There is also now a bullish engufling pattern on the weekly candlestick chart. So being bullish here has its backers too. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were both higher to close out the week as there seems to be a better tone for stocks at the moment. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 193 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. We bounced around today but managed to finish near the highs for the session. For now it is fitting in with our scenario of a light volume rise to the near term down trend line in order to try the SPY September puts. But that doesn't mean that it's going to happen as a bottom is in place and it could lead to a longer rally. The short term technicals for the S&P 500 have turned up and have plenty of room to move higher. The potential inverted head and shoulders pattern is still there on the S&P and the NYA. So we have a lot to think about in the coming days. Do we want to be short going into the weekend if we see more upside tomorrow? Do we wait until before the inflation report that is due out on Tuesday? Or do we simply step aside and let the market go where it goes? Always plenty of questions in this game. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX was flat. Volume was average. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and we haven't seen that in a while. I'm still a fan of the GDX October calls and my open order remains in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to fall and it closed below its 50 day moving average. There's also plenty of room on the short term indicators here for the VIX to move lower. That implies higher prices near term for stocks. That fits with our hopes of a rise to the down trend line on the S&P. The problem is that it could mean a much better rally and a break to the upside of that line. We will have to make a decision rather soon, as in the next couple of trading sessions. We're also running out of time for this option cycle so the risk is high. The option premiums will be moving quickly and it has already been established that the short term trades are not my best. However at this point I'm still inclined to try the SPY put trade if we move higher towards that down trend line. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the shortened week tomorrow.

Looking for a bounce and we got one today as the Dow climbed 436 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The question now is whether or not the bottom for this move lower is in or if this is just a bear market bounce. It feels like the latter since the up move came out of nowhere, which is often the case in bear markets. We still remain short term oversold for the S&P 500 despite the move higher today. The light volume also doesn't inspire us to believe that this is more than just a bounce in an ongoing down trend. The next down trend line for the S&P 500 comes in about 100 points from here. Will we get there or have the patience to wait? The trading is never easy and time is running out in the September option cycle. Gold jumped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added about 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was good and the short term technical indicators for GDX have turned back up. My open order for the GDX October calls wasn't filled and it appears that it won't be. I'm still leaving it out there but it doesn't look like it will get filled if this is indeed a bottom for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and closed back below its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are rolling over which implies more gains to come for stocks. It is another sign that the potential is there for the recent decline to be over. However we'll only know that for sure as time goes on. Meanwhile we have to trade with whatever information that we have today. If we continue to move up with light volume I will probably try the SPY puts before expiration next week. I'm also a believer in the gold shares right now so I'll be hoping for some near term weakness again there to try the October calls. Markets rarely cooperate. Asia was lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Slightly lower to begin a shortened trading week as the Dow fell 173 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down but it wasn't a huge decline. Short term oversold and staying that way for the major averages. I'm still looking for some kind of decent bounce in stocks this week. Hopefully that would set us up for the SPY September puts. But the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Plenty of bears out there now so a move in the other direction would not be a surprise. Running out of time in the September option cycle. Gold dropped $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point and GDX lost 1/3. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. We'll need to see more of a decline in the gold shares for this order to be filled. Not sure it's the best idea but the gold shares are blown out to the downside on all the time frames. The indicators also remain oversold as they have been for a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. Short term overbought here and staying that way. That condition won't last forever but we certainly don't know when it will end. It lends to the possibility of more downside for stocks if it persists. A positive is that the S&P 500 has held the 3900 level so far. We remain at a critical juncture. Europe was up and Asia mixed in the overnight trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 338 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The market liked the jobs report as we were higher early on. Then about halfway through the session the sellers took over and moved things lower until we reached the support at 3900 where we got a slight bounce into the close. The NASDAQ was the downside leader again. We are short term oversold and I expect to see a better bounce than what we just got. If 3900 can't hold things together for the S&P 500 we'll probably have to head down and test the June lows. However I do expect things to hold up here at least on a temporary basis. The breadth wasn't too bad today despite the drop. Plus the light volume ahead of a long holiday weekend wasn't a surprise. When everybody gets back to their desks next week we'll see where we're going. Gold saw a bounce today as the futures rose $11. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good to the upside so perhaps the decline in the gold shares will come to an end. Still short term oversold here despite todays gains. I'm leaving in my order for the GDX October calls. May have missed the chance though if the gold shares simply move up from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a wide range today and finished just a bit lower from yesterdays close. I still can't figure out where the VIX is going here but it remains short term overbought. What we can say for certain is that volatility has returned. Only nine days left in the September option cycle. We now have a down trend line for the S&P that comes in at 4100. If we can somehow make it up close to there before expiration we'll try the SPY September puts. But that seems like a remote possibility as the S&P is below its 50 day moving average now and moving lower. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend with an extra day to try and develop a strategy. Europe higher and Asia lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We had a one day reversal to the upside as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 146 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Finally at least some kind of bounce in the market that was long overdue. Possibly just some short covering but the indicators were extended to the oversold side and some kind of relief was necessary. Perhaps we'll see some follow through after the jobs report on Friday. But the fundamental backdrop of higher rates for a longer time remains. The 3900 support level for the S&P 500 has held up for now. As long as the summation index is heading lower, the overall trend remains down. Gold dropped twenty bucks on the futures. Getting close to the $1700 level here. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX sank another 3/4. Volume was good to the downside again. The gold shares are blown out to the downside any way you look at it. I have placed an order for the GDX October calls and I'm leaving it out there. It will take some more decline in GDX to get filled. The October option cycle has an extra week in it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and remains short term overbought. On the daily chart it looks as though the VIX has put in a short term top. This would imply that we will see some near term strength in the stock market. Perhaps that will set us up for the SPY puts before the September expiration. However the potential S&P 500 inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact. For now we'll wait and see what the reaction is to the employment report. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market tried to rally today but failed as the Dow lost 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Oversold, staying that way and that is never a good sign. Overdue for a bounce but the S&P 500 closed below the support at 3975. It looks like the next stop will be 3900. The NASDAQ wasn't the leader today and that's a small plus. Buyers are on a boycott. I've got to believe that we'll see some kind of upside before the week is out. Perhaps the jobs report will encourage some short covering at least. But it appears that the tide has now turned and we'll be looking to purchase some SPY September puts at some point if we get the chance. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar remained steady but interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was lighter than average. I'm not sure how much lower the gold shares can go as they are completely blown out to the downside both short and medium term. Patience here still for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Still short term overbought for the VIX. I do not have a good feel for what the VIX is doing at this time. It is back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can say that the way the markets are acting it feels like lower prices are in our future. Just how low is the question. At this point I don't have an answer. Are we going back to the June lows? We'll see. Beginning of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday. Europe and Asia were both weak in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Still heading lower as the Dow fell 308 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The S&P 500 has made it to the up trend line at 3975 and is holding on for now. Some kind of bounce should come in here as the S&P is short term oversold and we are right at the level of support that we were looking for. The 50 day moving average is also trying to stem the decline. If things don't hold on here 3900 would be the next spot to look for some reprieve from the selling. We thought that the bear was dead but perhaps it just went into hibernation during the summer rally. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 daily chart is still a possibility however at this rate of decline it isn't going to happen. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell almost 3 points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares are short term oversold and have broken their near term level of support. We're still looking at the GDX October calls but are not convinced this is the right idea at this time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished with just a slight gain despite the market decline. Short term overbought here. Not sure what to expect from the VIX next. Tomorrow is the last day of the month so there might be some position squaring going on. The continued light volume is a factor of the lack of buyers and also players on one last summer fling away from their desks. We do have the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.

It was a day of stabalization after Fridays debacle as the Dow fell 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Short term oversold now for most of the major indices. Some are trying to hold on here at their 50 day moving averages. We're keeping an eye on the up trend line at 3975 for the S&P 500. That should be the moment of truth for what's going on here. There is a possibility that the daily chart on the S&P is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. That would prove to be quite a surprise. But it's only a potential for now as we'll see how things play out as time goes on. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold finished flat on the session as did the US dollar. Interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX was off 1/3. Volume was average. I'm looking at the October GDX calls now but in no hurry to do anything. The positive seasonal period now for gold is offset by the poor current fundamentals for the precious metal. GDX is short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish down form the best levels of the session. It is short term overbought which normally would imply that we'll see some gains for stocks near term. However it's quite possible that these aren't normal times after the sell off on Friday. So I'm not getting a good feel for what the VIX is doing here. The Russell 2000 led the way down and then back up recently. It hasn't been dropping as much as the rest of the pack here relatively speaking. So perhaps we are not on the verge of a major decline but that's just a guess on my part. The summation index continues to move down and we'll take our cues from there. Europe and Asia were lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks got rocked today as the speech from chairman Powell led to massive selling. The Dow fell just over a thousand points on light volume. There were no buyers on a summer Friday. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The NASDAQ was off almost 500 points and led the way down. The S&P 500 is back to oversold in a hurry. The next area of support is at the 50 day moving average around the 4000 level. Then comes the up trend line that began in June at about 3975. At this pace we'll get there next week. I certainly did not expect such a negative market reaction today. We also didn't get the light volume rally back to the 200 day moving average we were hoping for. It looks like the ship has sailed for the SPY September put idea. Not sure on what we are going to do next. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished higher and interest rates were only up slightly. The XAU fell almost five points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. Not sure if we want to step in and buy the GDX calls here as it looks like the support is about to break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and closed above both the 200 and 50 day moving averages. No way I saw that coming. The short term indicators turned back up and are getting overbought. Yesterday it looked like the VIX was going to fall and stock prices were going to rise. Today the exact opposite occurred. Hence, this is why we often say that the market will go where it wants. So where do we go from here? I'll be going over the charts this weekend as there will be plenty of work to do. With September looming it appears as though today is the precursor to lower prices. It won't be a straight line but the trend has turned back down. The summer rally has run its course. Will we make it down to the lows of June? Who knows? For now we'll just try and figure out a near term strategy. Asia was up and Europe down to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No summer doldrums today as the Dow soared 332 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Perhaps what the Fed chairman says tomorrow won't matter as the market is already moving higher. Or perhaps the market knows things that we don't. We expected some kind of bounce and we're getting it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around and they have plenty of room to move up. We will wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the 200 day moving average and then we'll decide what to do there. If the volume remains on the light side we'll probably try the SPY September puts. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with most interest rates. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up about 1/4. Volume was light. Still on the sidelines with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower and its 50 day moving average just dropped through the 200 day. This is saying that we'll be getting lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. The short term techncial indicators for the VIX have rolled over with plenty of room to go down. We've already declared the bear dead and the VIX is another indicator that confirms it. Could things turn around and the stock market move lower? Anything is possible in this game but the odds are stacked against it in the near term at this point. Whatever comes out of the Fed chairmans speech tomorrow will probably be viewed as a positive and the markets should move higher. So we'll see how it goes. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. All ears on what Powell has to say tomorrow.

More hanging around in the summer again today as the Dow gained 59 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending down. It was another light volume, going nowhere kind of day. Waiting on the Fed chairman to speak on Friday. Even that can only do so much. I'm still in the camp that thngs don't really get going until after Labor day. The S&P 500 has stopped going lower and I expect some kind of bounce here. There are a couple of gaps to fill. If we see a light volume rally back up to the recovery highs we will seriously consider the SPY September puts. For now patience is the best strategy as the S&P is short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar held steady while interest rates continued their climb. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose about 1/4. volume was light. No hurry to trade the gold share options right now. Again, waiting things out for a while seems to be the best course of action/inaction. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and was turned back at the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are rolling back down. The 50 day moving average is about to pass through the 200 day. That is a bullish sign for the VIX to move lower and implies higher prices for stocks. But we'll see. It would fit in with my scenario of a near term bounce for the market. So for now we'll remain on the sidelines and most likely let this week pass. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll see if we get some more summer doldrums tomorrow.

A lot of hanging around today as the Dow fell 154 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow led the way down but it wasn't dramatic as the prvious two sessions. I expect things to work there way higher from here going into Friday. Some of the short term indicators for the market are oversold. There's still room to decline to the next up trend line for the S&P 500 but I don't think we'll get there in a straight line. I could be wrong. The small stocks held up relatively better today and that's a plus. The declines for the S&P along with the NASDAQ were minimal. It is the end of August and the last of the vacations for the major players this summer. So I wouldn't expect too much until after Labor day. If we see a light volume rally from here back to the 200 day moving average, we'll consider the September SPY puts. Gold bounced back $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. We're still considering the gold share calls but will wait for now. This very well could be a time when patience pays off. I do think that the markets could be on hold until next month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but is still stuck below its 200 day moving average which is proving to be resistance. It is also next to the top Bollinger band on the daily chart. That is why I would be surprised if the VIX goes higher from here in the short term. It is another reason why I think the recent decline has run its course for now. But as always the market will go where it wants. We'll remain on our hands for now but searching for the next trading opportunity. Europe and Asia traded lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to begin a summer week in August as the Dow dropped 643 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned around and is now moving lower. The summer rally is taking a break. Is it over for good? We'll know more as time goes on. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but aren't yet oversold. There is an up trend line there that comes in around the 50 day moving average. That would be a logical place for the selling to stop and we've only had a couple of days down. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. 200 day moving averages proved to be barriers. We'll see how it goes from here. Gold fell $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. GDX has reached short term oversold but it would be very hard to try the calls here with all the fundamentals going against it. The gold shares holding up with a drop in gold today is bullish though. However a rising dollar along with higher interest rates doesn't fit with gold moving up. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and one of the short term indicators is already overbought after remaining oversold for weeks. This implies that the decline will be short lived but we'll see about that. The VIX was turned back at its 200 day moving average and that's a plus for the bulls. However the downside channel that formed in the daily chart has been violated to the upside so that pattern has reached its conclusion. What we can say with certanty is that the market has reached a turning point. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week as well. We'll keep an eye on the after hours developments.

Selling was the theme of the day as the Dow lost 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. Not sure if this is actually the beginning of something sustained to the downside or just an expiration Friday event. The near term up trend line in the S&P has been violated but there's another up trend line at lower levels. The breadth today was the weakest that we've seen in a while so we'll keep an eye on that. Also if the summation index starts to drop we'll know that a change is at hand. Gold dropped another ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its climb along with most interest rates. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is getting to short term oversold on the indicators. Will we try the calls here again? Gold is in a seasonally positive time period but the fundamentals right now don't add up to higher gold prices. We'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a point but still remains short term oversold. It also remains in the downward channel that began in June. It is oversold on both the short and medium term time frames so maybe it's time for volatility to make a return. It is a normally weak time period for stocks. Perhaps the summer rally has run its course but we'll know more in the coming days. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as we roll into the September option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Hanging around would be the best way to descibe todays lack of price movement as the Dow rose 18 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. We went back and forth today but didn't do much either way. It had a summer doldrums feel to it even though it is option expiration week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is stalling at its 200 day moving average. Not sure what to expect for expiration Friday. Major stock indexes are either at or close to their 200 day moving averages. What happens from here will tell us a lot about the summer rally and if it continues. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves slightly higher on very light volume once again. No real interest in the precious metals at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains oversold and this is sounding like a broken record for those old enough to remember when music was played on a phonograph. The VIX implies that the rally will live on as it is below the 20 level and dropping. With the VIX action and the stock market rally we have declared the bear dead. The only thing that would change that is if the 200 day moving averages proved to be resistance. In that case this would be the mother of all bear market rallies. But that scenario is slim at this point. Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 171 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. We had a gap down at the open, started to move higher after the Fed minutes and then sold into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite todays drop. It is hesitating at the 200 day moving average. It's tough when the trades that got stopped out yesterday would have turned a profit today but that is just part of the game. Timing is everything and it certainly gets tougher during option expiration week. Will this be the beginning of an extended decline? Hard to say as buyers have seemed to be ready to step up at any hint of selling lately. So we'll see. Perhaps a top needs to build before we really head lower. Or not. The S&P is pretty far from the 50 day moving average though. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell over 4 points, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume was good to the downside. Not yet short term oversold for the gold shares so we will wait and see. The fundamentals are still unfavorable for the precious metals at this point. Mentally I'm still feeling frustrated especially after the market finally moved lower today. But you've got to simply move on because the market doesn't care how you feel. The VIX was only up slightly with todays stock market drop and finished well below the best levels of the day. Still short term oversold on the VIX. I think the VIX could go either way here and that will tell us a lot about where things are at. If the market is indeed about to roll over now the VIX will have to get moving higher. If not we could see new recovery highs for stocks going into Friday expiration. Either way I'm probably staying on the sidelines for now. Asia up and Europe down last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed picture today as the Dow gained 239 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. Small stocks took a breather as the NASDAQ had a small loss. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought but did drop back from the best levels of the day. My SPY August puts got stopped out for a 35% loss. Would I like to try them again? Well yes, but after two straight losses I'll have to sit things out for the rest of the week. My short term timing has never been that good and this week reinforces that fact. Do I still expect some kind of drop this week? I do but things could just run up into the expiration before the market takes a break. The Dow was the leader today and that sometimes is a sign that things will be cooling off. Perhaps we'll get some sellers after tomorrows Fed minutes are released. Gold was off $7. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. Still waiting for an oversold reading on GDX to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as losing trades will do that. Stepping back right now would not be a bad idea. At least the money management was handled properly as I adhered to the stop loss orders. But it's really no consolation. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. Still oversold here and there seems to be no end to that. Hence a rally that has gone on as long as this one. The declining trend channel remains intact and the 50 day average is getting close to dropping below the 200 day. The rally could surprise even more to the upside if that occurs. The stock market lately has had a summer trading feel to it with lighter volume and a lack of volatility. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

More of the same to begin option expiration week as the Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is moving higher. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. Overbought for the major averages and staying that way. I did try the SPY August puts early but obviously the timing was off. I sold them back for a 40% loss. I am however still a believer in a decline early this week and bought them again at a closer to the money strike price. Those are showing a small loss. The stop loss order is in. Very risky with only 4 days left in the August option cycle. Plus we could just see higher prices into the expiration on Friday. However we don't trust light volume rallies and that's what we're seeing now. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU fell two points, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was light here. Waiting for GDX to get oversold on the daily chart before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit today which doesn't fit with a postive market. Oversold forever here or so it seems. Just below the important 20 level. The VIX is overdue for a spike but we certainly don't know what would be the catalyst. The S&P 500 hit the 4300 level today and is just below its 200 day moving average. The summar rally remains intact. I am trying the SPY puts here but it could just end up being back to back losses. However I do think that some kind of pause is coming sooner rather than later. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally higher but it wasn't what you'd call a rally. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The summer rally continues as the Dow gained 424 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 higher. The summation index is moving up. Stock indices are overbought and staying that way. Down trend lines have been broken to the upside. The bear is dead regardless of what you might hear. I did place several orders for the SPY August puts today as I modified them as we went up. I have one in as I'm writing todays blog but it probably won't get filled either. I can try again Monday morning if I desire. However trading the short side here is dangerous as it appears prices will be run up into option expiration. That said I do think we're in for a rest at some point next week and sooner rather than later. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. The Russell 2000 just broke through its 200 day moving average. We closed the week at the highs. I'll probably try the SPY puts on any strength Monday morning. But make no mistake that the trend is up. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. Still short term overbought for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX went back down today and is again below the 20 level. The VIX has been moving lower in a steady channel since the lows of the market in June. As long as the VIX remains this way the overall trend for stocks is up. The lower the VIX goes below 20 the stronger the up trend becomes. However we have been oversold on this indicator for so long on a daily basis that I'm pretty sure it is on its last legs moving lower. It is another eason that I would like to try the SPY puts on Monday. But we'll go over the charts this weekend and figure out the plan. It could be to just remain on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Markets rallied early on the tame inflation data but spent the rest of the day selling off. The Dow rose 27 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had one day reversals to the downside as they closed negative. Yes the July inflation numbers were low as gas prices came down and commodities sank during that timeframe. It's all about where we go from here as inflation is by no means dead. I did place an order for the SPY August puts overnight but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now in hopes of a return to todays highs in the next couple of sessions. Running out of time in the August option cycle. The Russell 2000 has stalled today at its 200 day moving average. I would keep a close eye on what happens there but for now all signs point to higher prices going forward. Then why try the puts? Well, it won't be a straight line up and the market has been short term oversold for weeks. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose despite the weak inflation data. The XAU was off 2 1/3 and GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was light. I canceled my order for the GDX September calls. Might try it again if GDX gets back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is now at the 20 level. Short term oversold for weeks here and another reason to take a shot at the index puts. That would be the theory but the reality doesn't always match. I also would not be surprised if the market simply continues higher into option expiration next Friday. The trading is never easy. We'll see things shake out tomorrow and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tame inflation data led to a huge rally today as the Dow soared 535 on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The small stocks have been leaders both on the way down and on the way back up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and has now crossed 4200. The bear looks to be dead. Yes we are still thinking about the SPY puts but we don't want to get in front of this move up. It could simply plow higher into the expiration next week. Down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of the decline are being broken on some of the major averages. The producer prices tomorrow should bode well for more gains. Gold dropped $5 on the futures. The US dollar sank, while interest rates were a bit lower after being down more early on. The XAU was up 1 1/3 and GDX had a fractional gain. Volume was light. I do still have an open order out for the GDX September calls but am considering canceling it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as the long term money we have wasn't deployed after the market dropped over 20%. We were looking at it but did not do anything. The rally here is for real and we don't see the market getting back towards 3600 again. The VIX had a big drop and is now below the 20 level. This is what we've been waiting for but now we're here and it feels like it will simply continue lower. Oversold for an extremely long time on the daily VIX. But if it simply continues to move lower here below 20 it is another confirmation that the bear market is over. We cannot argue with the charts. I'll think about whether or not I want to take the risk of trying the SPY August puts tonight and perhaps place an overnight order. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.

A summer session to be sure as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. Inflation data due for the next couple of days and it should be market positive. We continue to wait for the S&P 500 to reach 4200 before thinking about purchasing the SPY August puts. The NASDAQ led the way lower but we don't think this is the start of any long term decline. As long as the summation index moves forward the trend is up. Gold added five bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. GDX is now short term overbought on some of the short term techncial indicators. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and remains oversold. Still waiting on the 20 level here before trying the SPY puts. Waiting pretty much sums up what the stock market did today. We'll get the CPI tomorrow and the market reaction to it and go from there. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week with a mixed picture as the Dow gained 29 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The S&P remains short term overbought. We're still waiting for the 4200 level before trying the SPY August puts. Inflation data on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. So it still remains a waiting game for now. Gold was up over a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 2/3, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX September calls is still out there but won't get filled at this rate. Might have to cancel it and look for something else. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and remains short and medium term oversold. Looking for the 20 level here for an entry to the SPY puts. Not quite there but the VIX has remained oversold during most of the summer rally. It will not be oversold forever. However trying to figure out when it turns is the problem. For now the market is stronger than it has been all year and the bulls are in control. Sellers have retreated and I'm not sure what brings them back. This time of the year usually favors the bears but they've gone into hibernation for now. Perhaps todays candlestick on the daily Russell 2000 chart marks some kind of near term top. The Russell has led the way up. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the news of the evening.

It is a market that just doesn't want to go down. The Dow gained 76 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to rise. We opened with a huge gap lower on a hotter than expected jobs report. However buyers stepped up and we traded back and forth for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ did finish in the red but came well off of their lows. The major indices remain short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY August puts but canceled it. I guess that I will wait for the 4200 on the S&P 500 or just sit things out here. The Russell 2000 continues higher and has been the leader to the upside. Unless we see a change there the trend remains up. Gold fell $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. The gold shares also had a gap lower at the open only to make a comeback for the rest of the day. My open order for the GDX September calls is still out there. Won't get filled at the price I'm willing to pay at this rate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued its downward trend and is getting closer to the 20 level. It has been short term oversold for quite a while but trying to figure out when it will reverse is a guessing game. I'm still inclined to perhaps attempt the SPY August puts if the VIX hits 20 and the S&P is at 4200. Things rarely, if ever, fit your trading plans. There's still two weeks left in the August option cycle. At the rate the market is going it appears that maybe traders will just bid things higher into expiration Friday. We'll see. I'll go over the charts over the weekend and try to come up with something. Asia higher and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Waiting on the jobs data as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negtive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ had a gain and that's bullish. Still short term overbought for the major stock averages. Looking for 4200 on the S&P to try the SPY August puts. However as long as the summation index is going up the path of least resistance is higher. Gold was up over $30 on the futures and crossed the $1800 level. We've seen an upside reversal there. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was good. GDX has broken through the down trend line on the daily chart that began in April. I'm leaving my open order out there but it appears that I'm too late. Perhapd an adjustment will be necessary. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower, remains oversold and is below 22. If it gets to 20 that's a spot to try the SPY August puts as well. Not sure how much to read into tomorrows data but as always the markets response will be the key. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll close out the first week of August tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 416 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to climb. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is bullish. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. It has been a great summer rally. We are just about at the 50% retracement level of the decline for the S&P 500. That comes in at approximately 4200-4220. That will be the last chance for the bears to make a stand most likely. It is also the area to try the SPY August puts. At the rate we're going we could get there by the end of the week. It's not without risk though as the rising summation index clearly states that we're in a rally. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed along with interest rates. Rates did rise early but then retreated as the day moved on. The XAU fell almost 2 points, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good. I placed another order for the GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. Not exactly sure this is the right move and I'll reconsider it overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below 22. Short term oversold and staying that way here. The VIX implies higher prices in the near term. Evidently the employment report on Friday will not present any obstacles to the rally at least in terms of what the VIX is saying for now. Although we've entered a normally weak seasonal period for stocks they obviously didn't get the memo. The Russell is leading the way up and we'll keep an eye on that. I'll try and remain patient to wait for the 4200 level on the S&P. We'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mostly so as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 402 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues up. The Dow led the way lower, clearly underperforming the major averages. The NASDAQ held up rather well and that's a plus. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I do believe that we'll see higher prices there before the week is done. The TRAN did have a big drop today and that will be something to keep an eye on. Waiting for 4150-4200 on the S&P to start thinking about the SPY August puts. The path of least resistance remains higher as long as the summation index continues to move forward. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates today. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. Perhaps if the gold shares make it back to short term oversold territory we'll consider the GDX September calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term technical indicators have turned back up. It does remain below the 200 day average. For some reason I just don't think we're on the verge of a huge decline but I could be wrong. The Russell 2000 was barely negative today and continues to lead the way up. If it were to reverse here then I would have to change my view. It is short term overbought but the tone of the overall market lately certainly hasn't been bearish. As always we'll keep a close eye on things and see where we go from here. Perhaps the jobs data on Friday will give us some clues. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A pause in the rally to start the week as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. In my view this is not a top yet as I expect the S&P 500 to get to the 4150-4200 level before taking a breather. I could be wrong but with the summation index leading the way along with the Russell 2000, I expect some more gains in the near future. We're still dealing with 2nd quarter earnings and then we'll get the jobs data on Friday. Gold was up around $5 on the futures. The US dollar continued to drop along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume. I'm still considering trading the GDX calls again but not sure of the timing just yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good bounce higher today but it was not reflected in the loss for stocks. Not sure what to make of that except that the market tone has changed and we are in a bullish mode for now. I would like to try the SPY August puts at some point but will have to wait for the VIX to get back below 22 again. The 20 level is the line in the sand here. Too late to try the index calls now in my opinion. So it is simply watch and wait for now. Asia was higher and Europe lower in trading overseas last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.