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Thursday, September 08, 2022

Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 193 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. We bounced around today but managed to finish near the highs for the session. For now it is fitting in with our scenario of a light volume rise to the near term down trend line in order to try the SPY September puts. But that doesn't mean that it's going to happen as a bottom is in place and it could lead to a longer rally. The short term technicals for the S&P 500 have turned up and have plenty of room to move higher. The potential inverted head and shoulders pattern is still there on the S&P and the NYA. So we have a lot to think about in the coming days. Do we want to be short going into the weekend if we see more upside tomorrow? Do we wait until before the inflation report that is due out on Tuesday? Or do we simply step aside and let the market go where it goes? Always plenty of questions in this game. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX was flat. Volume was average. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself and we haven't seen that in a while. I'm still a fan of the GDX October calls and my open order remains in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to fall and it closed below its 50 day moving average. There's also plenty of room on the short term indicators here for the VIX to move lower. That implies higher prices near term for stocks. That fits with our hopes of a rise to the down trend line on the S&P. The problem is that it could mean a much better rally and a break to the upside of that line. We will have to make a decision rather soon, as in the next couple of trading sessions. We're also running out of time for this option cycle so the risk is high. The option premiums will be moving quickly and it has already been established that the short term trades are not my best. However at this point I'm still inclined to try the SPY put trade if we move higher towards that down trend line. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the shortened week tomorrow.

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