Friday, September 23, 2022
The selling continues but buyers did appear in the final hour to keep things from getting worse. The Dow fell 486 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is in freefall. The McClellan oscillator is below -300 which doesn't happen very often. So we are in very interesting times. Short term oversold still for the major averages and staying that way. I'm expecting some kind of bounce that is way overdue but when remains the question. Most of the major stock indexes have made it to their June lows and now we will see if thay hold. The S&P 500 is pretty far from its 50 day moving average and should at least try to get back towards it soon. Things are overdone to the downside but there still are not a lot of reasons to be investing at the moment. However in the longer term the time to be buying is when everyone else is selling. Gold fell about $30 on the futures. The US dollar soared while interest rates were mixed. Rates did come back from their highs of the session, probably in a flight to safety. The XAU fell 5 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside and prices set new yearly lows for the gold share indices. My open order for the GDX October calls got filled and it's already a loser. I'll probably be getting rid of this trade sooner rather than later. However it does have plenty of time left in the October option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed above 30 today before falling back. Overbought on the short term here but we've seen the VIX get higher in the current down trend that began in January. I'm not sure where the VIX goes from here as I haven't had a good feel for this indicator lately. Overall it was a rough week for stocks. September still has a week to go. We are quite oversold though and a big bounce out of nowhere is entirely possible. However the longer term outlook is not looking positive for stocks despite todays depressed levels. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. As long as the summation index is moving lower that will be the path for the stock market. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide exit from equities. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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