Friday, September 09, 2022
More upside today as the Dow gained 377 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to try and turn around. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader. I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled. I'll probably try again on Monday because we are seeing a light volume rally going up to the near term down trend line in the S&P. It is possible that I'm too late though. It all depends on the price action Monday. The short term technical indicators for the S&P along with the other major averages have turned back up. So we also have the possibility that a bottom is in place and that the rally for the past three days will continue. But you have to pick your side and for now I'm going with a bearish scenario at the trend line. Inflation data on Tuesday will provide some answers when we get the market reaction to it. We'll have all weekend to decide what to do. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up almost three points and GDX gained 3/4. Volume was about average. The gold shares are out performing the metal itself and this week is the first time we've seen that for a while. It's a positive. Any pullback in the gold shares can be bought in my opinion. But once again we may already be too late if the gold indices simply continue to move higher. My order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and there's still some room on the short term indicators to go lower. It fits with the higher stock prices that we're seeing. Perhaps we should just pay attetion to what's happening here but we'll know more on Monday. We can make a case for the S&P to get to 4100 before a pause but that would put it through the down trend line. It did close above its 50 day moving average today. There is also now a bullish engufling pattern on the weekly candlestick chart. So being bullish here has its backers too. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were both higher to close out the week as there seems to be a better tone for stocks at the moment. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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