Monday, September 26, 2022
We remain very oversold as the market is at least trying to halt the decline but the Dow lost 329 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The McClellan oscillator is now about as negative as it gets but that doesn't mean that we can't go lower. We are at extremes here for oversold market behavior. We will see a pretty good bounce at some point this week in my opinion. The NASDAQ is holding up better than the other major averages so we are probably at some kind of low even if it is just temporary. That said it remains to be seen when we'll see some kind of sustained rally in the near term. We did see an attempt at a bounce into the close again. Perhaps we can build off of that tomorrow. If not it will probably be just more of the same. Maybe the sidelines is the place to be for now. Gold fell again as the futures dropped around $25. Heading for the $1600 level or so it seems. The US dollar is moving straight up and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU lost 2 1/3,while GDX fell a little over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. My GDX October calls are solid losers but I am expecting a bounce for the gold shares soon as well. Very oversold here as well. I am considering getting some more of the GDX October calls at a closer to the money strike price tomorrow. What we are witnessing in the markets right now is an oversold extreme. It is the opposite of the overbought extreme that is occurring at this moment in the US dollar. Things that start to go straight up tend to always end with a move straight back down. We have a month to see a drop in the dollar and a rise for gold. That is why I'm considering getting some more of the gold share calls even though I'm currently in a losing position with them. I'll think about it some more tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher, is short term overbought and above the 30 level. Volatility is the watch word. If the VIX gets above the 35 level, that could be about it for the decline in the near term. At the rate we're going we'll get there tomorrow. Summation index moving with big gaps to the downside and through the zero line. The McClellan oscillator approaching the -400 level extreme. Markets oversold and staying that way. These are things that don't happen very often. Opportunities are there if you can take advantage of them but be careful. Asia and Europe were down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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