Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 313 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. We opened with a gap lower and were negative for the whole session. There were a couple of attempted rallies. The NASDAQ did hold up better than the other major averages. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Waiting on the market reaction to the Fed but what about after that? The summation index is close to the zero line, so the possibility of the market tanking is possible. There also aren't any compelling reasons to be buying stocks at this juncture. But the market goes where it wants. Option premiums are inflated for the SPY with the recent volatility combined with an extra week in the October cycle. So we will have to wait for the next trade there. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was light. Today the gold shares under performed. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX rose today as the market dropped. Once again the 28 level contained the rise there. Getting short term overbought for the VIX but not all the way there yet. Not sure what to expect next here with the VIX but if it gets past 28 we'll see a big drop in stocks. The Fed will raise rates tomorrow, Jerome Powell will speak and who knows what the markets will do? My guess is that we'll either see a good short covering rally or another downdraft for stocks. One thing for sure is that it won't be boring. So we'll see. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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