Friday, September 02, 2022
A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 338 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The market liked the jobs report as we were higher early on. Then about halfway through the session the sellers took over and moved things lower until we reached the support at 3900 where we got a slight bounce into the close. The NASDAQ was the downside leader again. We are short term oversold and I expect to see a better bounce than what we just got. If 3900 can't hold things together for the S&P 500 we'll probably have to head down and test the June lows. However I do expect things to hold up here at least on a temporary basis. The breadth wasn't too bad today despite the drop. Plus the light volume ahead of a long holiday weekend wasn't a surprise. When everybody gets back to their desks next week we'll see where we're going. Gold saw a bounce today as the futures rose $11. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good to the upside so perhaps the decline in the gold shares will come to an end. Still short term oversold here despite todays gains. I'm leaving in my order for the GDX October calls. May have missed the chance though if the gold shares simply move up from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a wide range today and finished just a bit lower from yesterdays close. I still can't figure out where the VIX is going here but it remains short term overbought. What we can say for certain is that volatility has returned. Only nine days left in the September option cycle. We now have a down trend line for the S&P that comes in at 4100. If we can somehow make it up close to there before expiration we'll try the SPY September puts. But that seems like a remote possibility as the S&P is below its 50 day moving average now and moving lower. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend with an extra day to try and develop a strategy. Europe higher and Asia lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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