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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

It was a one day downside reversal for the Dow but that probably doesn't mean much in this extremely oversold market condition. The most watched index fell 125 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. Opened higher, closed lower as the malaise continues. The NASDAQ managed a gain though. I still say that a bounce is coming this week as the S&P 500 is pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. I'm not saying the bounce will mean anything but the oversold condition must be relieved at some point. As I have already said we are at extremes for some of our indicators. Some of that pressure has to be worked off and then we will probably head even lower. A big rally out of nowhere is the hallmark of a bear market decline and I am fairly sure we'll get it this week before the end of the month. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. My GDX October calls are solidly in the red. I did place an order for some more at a closer to the money strike price but the order was not filled. I'm still considering purchasing some more calls here but it would have to be before the overall stock market bounce that I'm looking for. I also am hoping to get out of the current GDX trade on that bounce because the entry was ill timed and I would like to either cut the loss or get out even. Could just be wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and is just about at 35 which has been close to the top of the range since the decline began in January. The VIX remains short term overbought on its technical indicators and has been for an extended period. That is unusual but we are in unusual times at the moment. Asia was slightly higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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