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Monday, October 10, 2022

We did not get the significant downside follow through to Fridays selling today as the Dow ended lower by 93 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It was basically a day of hanging around as the market could not find a direction of travel. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower as the overall market was weaker than the Dow. Getting short term oversold for the S&P 500 but not completely there yet. It also looks like the short term indicators downward movement is starting to stall here. Waiting on inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was down $35 on the futures. The US dollar was up and the bond market was closed for a holiday. The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was light. Considering the drop that we saw in gold, the gold shares held up rather well. Not sure what it means going forward but the gold shares continue to out perform the metal itself. My GDX October calls are now back to where I bought them. I have obviously held on to this trade for too long as the management of it has been abysmal. Less than 2 weeks left in the October option cycle. The short term indicators for GDX continue to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but came back from its best levels of the session. The short term technical indicators here are pointing up. The 50 day moving average is about to cross the 200 day to the upside on the VIX which would imply more volatility and lower stock prices. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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