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Thursday, October 06, 2022

Some selling ahead of the employment report as the Dow fell 346 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative for the second day in a row. The summation index is now tracking sideways. Not a huge decline or one to worry about in my mind as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are stalling at the mid-range level. So you could make a case for going either way here. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report tomorrow and go from there. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was a bit above average. Some of the indicators for GDX are short term overbought. During rallies the indicators can remain overbought as price moves higher. That is the situation that I believe we're in with regards to GDX. I have an upside target there but we haven't reached it yet. Since there is still 2 weeks left in the October option cycle, I've decided to hang on to this trade for now. It is still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with a market decline. However the VIX moved a lot higher than todays minor volatility would normally suggest. Not sure what that implies. The short term technical indicators for the VIX are starting to turn back up. The stock market has stalled after the huge gains to begin the week. That is not unexpected. How we close the week out will be important. More selling tomorrow will put into question the recent bottom. If we have a positive session it will be a plus for the bulls. At this point all we can do is wait and see. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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