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Friday, October 28, 2022

The market exploded to the upside today as the Dow gained 828 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Last night we got a signal from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days. Todays price action fulfills that. The inflation data today was within expectations. There was a huge move up in AAPL on the earnings but the earnings were nothing to write home about. Perhaps after all the negative earnings reports from the other big cap tech stocks it was a relief that AAPL wasn't as dour. Whatever the case it certainly doesn't explain such a huge move up in stocks. This is why we often say that the market will go where it wants. It is also why we stick to the technical factors to make our decisions. The S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average and remains short term overbought. It can remain short term overbought during rallies and we're in one now. Sellers have left the building. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The next down trend line for the S&P comes in at 4100 and it is a major one. The trend is up until proven otherwise. Gold was down $17. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again the gold shares out performed the precious metal and that is bullish. I am leaving out my open order for the GDX November calls. GDX is short term overbought here but if can stay that way as well if this is indeed a rally in the gold shares. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and is now below its 200 day moving average. Oversold and staying that way. 20 is the level to watch on the VIX and we are still a long way from there. As always the market can turn on a dime. However with the rising summation index coupled with the declining VIX you cannot argue with where prices are heading. The only caveat is that the rally that began a couple weeks ago came out of nowhere and that is classic bear market action. We'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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