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Thursday, October 20, 2022

The selling continued today but it wasn't too bad as the Dow 90 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still trying to stabilize here. The market action now seems more option expiration related than anything else. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over here though. Stock market indices here in general have been moving sideways for a month. A rollover here could lead to new lows or at least another test of the recent ones. Hasn't happened yet but the TRAN was pretty weak today. We'll have to see what the market has in store for us but lower prices would not be a surprise. Gold finished off a couple bucks on the futures after being higher earlier in the day. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added about 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares were off of their highs as well but did finish in the black and outshined the metal once again. I do continue to have an open order out for the GDX November calls but I moved it to a closer to the money strike price. The inverse head and shoulders is still valid on the GDX daily candlestick chart but any downside in the gold shares from here will kill that pattern. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today despite a drop in stocks and that doesn't fit. The VIX did close below the up trend line that has been in place since mid-August. I'm not sure exactly what to expect from the VIX now. Tomorrows results will probably tell us a lot. Even though stocks were lower today is wasn't led by the NASDAQ and that's a small plus for the bulls. Technical indicators look like they want to roll back down here but haven't yet. Not sure what to expect tomorrow but I'm leaning towards the downside. It's expiration Friday and anything goes. Europe up and Asia down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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