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Monday, October 03, 2022

Now today we saw a nice oversold short covering bounce as the Dow soared 765 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. A sharp rally out of the blue is typical for your usual bear market. This rise could have legs though as we have a positive RSI divergence on the SPY daily chart. Not to mention that we've been short term oversold for weeks. And I have mentioned more than once that we are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average on many stock indices. Not sure if this is the bottom though as the NASDAQ didn't lead today. But it's a great start to the month for the bulls. Gold jumped $35 on the futures today and closed above $1700. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 5 points, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good again to the upside. My GDX October calls are now solidly in the black. GDX is now at its 50 day moving average and that should provide some near term resistance. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely there yet. Plenty of time left in this trade but the key will be when to sell it as the entry was not good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and the short term indicators have rolled over. It seems to me that the VIX should go lower and stocks higher from here but who knows? We'll know more as the week goes on. One day doesn't make a rally. Europe was higher and what was open in Asia mixed. Parts of Asia are on holiday this week. We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.

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