Friday, October 14, 2022
Back to the downside as the Dow fell 403 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. After breifly being in positive territory at the start, the market moved lower all day. Yesterdays big gain was a mirage. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 turned back down. At this point I think the best we can hope for next week is sideways instead of straight down. Bank earnings were mixed. Retail sales were flat which missed expectations. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P now posts a bearish configuration. We could not build on yesterdays gains. Options expiration week will be upon us. Anyones guess which way things will go. The usual positive market bias there will be hard to come by in this bearish atmosphere. Gold was off $28 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX was down a point. Volume was average. I dumped the GDX October calls for about an 80% loss. Selling yesterday would have resulted in an acceptable 50% loss. Obviously should not have waited. This trade was a disastor. The entry was horrible, then it showed a decent gain which I let turn into an unacceptable loss. So it checked off all the boxes for a terribly managed trade. Not sure what my train of thought was there or if there even was any. We'll put it behind and move on. I might even try the GDX calls again next week for a short term trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged on the session which makes no sense whatsoever. A big move down for stocks and no movement on the VIX? I have no idea what is going on with this indicator. The VIX is in a solid uptrend though and that could make for a rocky week for stocks coming up. The VIX is overbought on a weekly basis. Options expiration week with more earnings reports on tap for next week. It won't be boring. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and see if I can find a trade for next week although the short term trades are not exactly my best ideas sometimes. Volatility will certainly be something to consider. Europe and Asia were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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