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Monday, October 17, 2022

A rally out of nowhere to begin the week as the Dow was up 550 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to stabalize. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Volatility is the rule with the market trying to regain some footing here. Perhaps the positive expiration week bias will take effect. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up with room to move higher. But we do have down trend lines in charge on most of the major index charts. Until they are taken out the trend is down. We are right at the first short term down trend line for the S&P. If we can move higher from here the next is at around 3800. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was light. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern is still there on the daily candlestick chart for GDX. I'm now considering the November calls there. Might place an overnight order. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are mid-range again. So we could go either way here. There is an up trend line on the VIX daily chart that comes in at the 30 level. If we can somehow break down through that line we would see a more sustained rally in stocks. The VIX is a bit over 31 as of the close today. However there's nothing stopping the VIX from moving higher and stocks heading lower either. That has been the pattern since the middle of August. But we are moving into a seasonally favorable period for stocks even though it is the beginning of 3rd quarter earnings reports. I guess we'll just try and get through expiration week and go from there. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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