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Friday, October 07, 2022

The market got whacked today as the Dow fell 630 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move lower. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but not by much. That gave sellers some ammo I guess as we had a gap lower at the open and continued down from there. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bears. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. After a huge start higher to begin the week, we are ending with a thud. It kind of has a feel as if things might just start to fall apart but we are already oversold for an extended period of time. I'm not sure what's next for the market at this stage. Gold dropped almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates rose as well. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. I don't know why I'm still holding on to the GDX October calls that I own. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. There is still two weeks left in these options but after today you have to think that gold is going lower with the overall market. I still have a price target that I thought would be met before expiration but this obviously could be wrong. The trade is still showing a small profit and I probably should have taken that today and been done with it. It looks like there could be a lousy exit for this trade to go with the lousy entry. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as you would have expected with the market tanking like it did. The short term indicators here are around mid-range still. I'm not sure what we have going on with this indicator right now either. I will have to regroup over the weekend and try to figure out what to do next. With a couple of weeks to go in the October option cycle, there's still plenty of time to come up with a SPY trade. However with the market acting as it is at the moment and my inability to figure things out the sidelines might be a better idea. I will have to come up with a strategy for the current GDX call trade though. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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