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Thursday, October 13, 2022

Volatility with a vengeance as the Dow opened down over 500 points lower and then finished the day up 827 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We got a signal last night on the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next couple of sessions and we certainly saw it today. The inflation data was worse than expected which explains the early sell off but I can't say there's any reason for the rally. We were looking for an oversold bounce and we got it. Rallies out of nowhere are classic bear market traits. However todays price action has the makings of an exhaustion to the downside, which would mean higher prices going forward for a more extended period of time. That's my best guess at the moment. A market that rallies on bad news is also usually bullish. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned up. We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow. The NASDAQ wasn't the leader today. It was one of the wilder days on Wall street. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses but came back from their lows of the session just like the overall market. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are still mid-range. My GDX October calls are solid losers and they're running out of time. Not sure why I'm still holding this position but I'm thinking that it has a chance to reach break even. We'll see. The trade has already been poorly executed and a part of me also thinks it's time to take the loss and move on. Nothing comes easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have turned down. We'll see where it goes from here. The daily chart looks like it wants to go lower which would imply more upside for stocks. But I haven't been able to figure the VIX out lately. We'll get a look at retail sales tomorrow along with some bank earnings. Asia lower and Europe higher last night. We'll close out the trading week on Friday.

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