Tuesday, October 04, 2022
Upside follow through as the Dow gained 825 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up here from a deeply negative position. That usually means that the decline is over for now and this rally will have legs. It is also possible that the decline has ended for good but we'll only know that as time moves on. We did meet the measuring objective from the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 at 3600 on Friday. Sellers have hit the sidelines for now. It looks like we may have missed the best opportunity to put longer term funds to work. But we'll see where we go from here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have finally turned back up from being oversold. We are also heading back towards the 50 day moving average which is something that we've been looking for. Today we made it past the first down trend line for the S&P. The next one comes in at around 3925 and there is resistance at 3900 as well. That seems to be where we are headed in the short term. Gold was up another $30 on the futures. The US dollar sank and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU added almost 3 points, while GDX was up around 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. GDX is getting to be short term overbought and I have to consider selling my October calls here. I do have a higher price target in mind and the options still have over two weeks left in them. So I'm also considering being patient and perhaps getting out at a higher price on the option premium. Always plenty of unknown decisions to be made in the game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but not by much considering the huge move higher we had in stocks. Not sure what that means. The short term technical indicators are mid-range on the VIX. My thinking is that near term the VIX will head down and stocks will continue up. We'll see. Earnings season is about to get under way and all I'm seeing and hearing is that it will be worse than expected. So we'll expect the opposite. Companies will drag down their estimates and then surprisingly beat them in this shell game that comes around each quarter. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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