Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Weakness in general today but the Dow did manage to move up a couple of points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Tech earnings reports came in disappointing, leading the the NASDAQ to having an over 200 point decline. The S&P 500 was lower as well. It has stalled at the 50 day moving average and remains short term overbought. Would not be surprised for the market to take a rest here but you never know. We'll get a look at 3rd quarter GDP tomorrow and that should be a market mover. The inflation data out on Friday certainly will be. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was average. I canceled my open order for the GDX November calls as GDX has already moved up from its recent low. GDX is already close to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. If we get some pullback from where we are I might consider chasing this trade. The measuring objective from the pattern is 30 and GDX is around 25. But the ideal time to take the position has passed. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for missing out on the GDX call trade. However you've always got to make adjustments in the game and this could be one of those times. I might put in another order overnight. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 50 day moving average. This does not match up with a weaker overall market. The VIX is now short term oversold. Not sure what to expect next from this indicator or what the chart now implies. It does remain oversold during rallies but I'm thinking this short term stock market rally needs a rest. I could be wrong and often am. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
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