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Tuesday, October 18, 2022

We saw some upsiode follow through for a change as the Dow gained 338 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around here and has stopped moving lower for now. The Dow was the leader today and that is not the most bullish scenario. We opened with a huge gap up higher to start and worked out way lower from there for the rest of the session. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are now around mid-range so it could go either way from here. So far the positive expiration week bias has been in effect. But as we've seen lately, the market can turn on a dime. Not a lot of economic data this week but plenty of earnings. It is looking like we'll let this week pass for the S&P option trades and then go from there. Only 3 days left in the October option cycle. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were both little changed. The XAU and GDX both had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares out performed the metal itself again and that's bullish. I have an open order out now for the GDX November calls. If it gets filled I will make it a point to do a better job than the disastor that was the last trade there was. We'll see. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX is still there but it will have to get moving to the upside soon for it to work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower with stocks higher and that fits. We got even closer to the 30 level for the VIX today and a break below there will certainly empower the bulls. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX could just as easily move back up tomorrow. Interesting times. We'll be keeping a close watch on this indicator for clues on the markets direction as things have the feeling of at least a short term break from the recent constant selling. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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