Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Inflation data failed to have a big impact as the Dow was off 28 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The producer inflation data was a bit higher than expected but it did not cause any massive selling that we've seen lately with these reports. We'll see what happens with the consumer number tomorrow. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. I'm expecting a short term bounce in the stock indexes but it hasn't happened yet. I suppose there's always a chance that things will fall apart again tomorrow if the inflation data comes in worse than expected but that is not what I'm looking for. Most of the major stock indices are oversold and some have potential positive RSI divergences. So we'll see how it goes. Gold was off about $5 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain mid-range. My GDX October calls are still sporting a small loss. GDX could be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on its daily candlestick chart. Or that could simply be wishful thinking on my part. We'll know in due time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the day. The short term techniclas remain overbought. The 50 day moving average here has just crossed through the 200 day which implies higher VIX readings going forward. Which in turn means more volatility and lower stock prices. However we'll just have to wait and see what the market decides to do here. Europe and Asia were both lower again as there are no buyers for now. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data on Thursday.
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