Friday, October 21, 2022
Markets climbed higher today as the Dow soared 748 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is making a sideways channel. I was looking for lower prices today and was wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. Not sure how to explain todays price action. Short covering perhaps or maybe option related buying on the expiration. Or a combination of the two. The next down trend line for the S&P is at 3800. If we can get through there the picture will change and this down leg will be completed. Hasn't happened yet but after todays price action you get the feeling that it will. But we'll wait and see what happens next week. Gold was up over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained over 5 points, while GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside. I canceled my open order for the GDX November calls as it was not going to get filled after GDX took off to the upside at the open. The inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX now looks valid again and I'll be looking to purchase those Novermber calls on any pullback but it may already be too late. This looks like a trade that should be chased as the measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern comes in around 30. GDX is currently at 24 and change. I'll try and figure out what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for not buying the GDX calls this week. Although my orders were out there they didn't come close to being filled and adjustments needed to be made. I guess I just didn't have the faith that the pattern would hold up but it has for now. The VIX was slightly lower today. Some of the short term indicators here are getting oversold but aren't quite there yet. The VIX has broken the short term up trend line on the daily chart and that implies more rally to come. It is another reason that we could be in the midst of a change in the medium term direction of the market. We'll learn more as we go forward. Today was another one of those rallies out of nowhere though. Plenty of charts to check over the weekend as usual. Asia and Europe were generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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