Monday, October 31, 2022
Taking a step back on the final trading day of October as the Dow lost 128 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but there doesn't seem to be lot of conviction here. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. It's all about what the Fed has to say on Wednesday as the widely expected rate hike is already accounted for. So we'll just have to wait and see. I would not expect a lot of price movement ahead of the Fed but I've been wrong before. So we're in a wait and see mode for now. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was average. I canceled my open order and replaced it with another that is closer to the money for the GDX November calls. It will take some decline to get filled. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over and it will take a few days to get back down to oversold if it gets there. NEM reports earning tomorrow and that will move GDX one way or the other most likely. Remaining patient for now and might consider abandoning this idea as the week moves on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher and remains short term oversold as it hangs around the 200 day moving average. If it breaks away from the 200 day to the downside, the rally will continue. If not then the selling will return. I'm still leaning towards higher prices going forward with the summation index heading higher at the moment and getting closer to the zero line on this upswing. But we'll see what the market has in store for us. Asia was mixed with Europe higher to end the month and start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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