Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Sellers returned today as the Dow fell 100 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. The NASDAQ was a slight leader but the volume wasn't all that much. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to stall their upwards movement. I'm not sure where we go next. The fundamental backdrop with higher interest rates remains. We won't be making any SPY option trades this week. It is the sidelines in that regard for now. Gold fell over twenty bucks on the futures and appears to be about to make a new low for the year. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX shed about 3/4. Volume was light. Another day like today and the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily GDX chart will be negated. It looks like that's where we're headed. I did adjust my open order for the GDX November calls but I may just cancel it and move to a closer to the money strike price. If gold doesn't hold in here we'll most likely be heading to $1600. Perhaps forgetting about gold here would be the best strategy. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and the short term technical picture remains the same. The Bollinger bands are starting to get closer together which implies a big move coming one way or the other. We'll remain patient for now with only 2 days left in the October option cycle. Not to mention the inflated premiums for the November SPY options as there is plenty of time left in them. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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