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Thursday, August 25, 2022

No summer doldrums today as the Dow soared 332 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Perhaps what the Fed chairman says tomorrow won't matter as the market is already moving higher. Or perhaps the market knows things that we don't. We expected some kind of bounce and we're getting it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around and they have plenty of room to move up. We will wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the 200 day moving average and then we'll decide what to do there. If the volume remains on the light side we'll probably try the SPY September puts. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with most interest rates. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up about 1/4. Volume was light. Still on the sidelines with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower and its 50 day moving average just dropped through the 200 day. This is saying that we'll be getting lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. The short term techncial indicators for the VIX have rolled over with plenty of room to go down. We've already declared the bear dead and the VIX is another indicator that confirms it. Could things turn around and the stock market move lower? Anything is possible in this game but the odds are stacked against it in the near term at this point. Whatever comes out of the Fed chairmans speech tomorrow will probably be viewed as a positive and the markets should move higher. So we'll see how it goes. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. All ears on what Powell has to say tomorrow.

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