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Tuesday, August 23, 2022

A lot of hanging around today as the Dow fell 154 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow led the way down but it wasn't dramatic as the prvious two sessions. I expect things to work there way higher from here going into Friday. Some of the short term indicators for the market are oversold. There's still room to decline to the next up trend line for the S&P 500 but I don't think we'll get there in a straight line. I could be wrong. The small stocks held up relatively better today and that's a plus. The declines for the S&P along with the NASDAQ were minimal. It is the end of August and the last of the vacations for the major players this summer. So I wouldn't expect too much until after Labor day. If we see a light volume rally from here back to the 200 day moving average, we'll consider the September SPY puts. Gold bounced back $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. We're still considering the gold share calls but will wait for now. This very well could be a time when patience pays off. I do think that the markets could be on hold until next month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but is still stuck below its 200 day moving average which is proving to be resistance. It is also next to the top Bollinger band on the daily chart. That is why I would be surprised if the VIX goes higher from here in the short term. It is another reason why I think the recent decline has run its course for now. But as always the market will go where it wants. We'll remain on our hands for now but searching for the next trading opportunity. Europe and Asia traded lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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